The US Election and Financial Markets
Explore the intricate relationship between US Presidential elections and their influence on the global financial markets.
- Of the past six administrations, the dollar performed best under President Clinton, gaining 19.61% in value.*
- The dollar performed worst under President W. Bush, losing 22.00% in value.*
- In aggregate across all Republican terms, the dollar lost -36.17% in value while gaining 54.37% while under Democrat leadership*
*tradingview.com 01/20/1989 - 05/28/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
What do the polls say ahead of November's election?
Polls are often given a great deal of attention in the build up to any election. While they are not a clear indicator of which way the vote will go, they have the potential to inform trading strategy and any possible impact on the markets.
"The VP debate was civil, but lacked economic focus. More details are needed on tax policies and tariffs to assess any potential impact on the economy and FX exchange rates."
Moheb Hanna, OANDA Senior Market Analyst
With President Joe Biden withdrawing from the presidential race, we are set for an election without the incumbent president on the ballot card for the first time since 1968. Vice-President Kamala Harris will be the Democrat nominee to take on Donald Trump in November, but what could this mean for both traders and the financial markets?
Our latest coverage
Take a look at our latest market coverage from the presidential race:
Which currency pairs are likely to be most affected by the volatility surrounding the US presidential election?
2024 US election impact on currencies. Analysis of USD/MXN, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD volatility & trading opportunities amid economic uncertainty.
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What Kamala Harris' Presidency could mean for financial markets
The potential consequences of Harris' presidency ahead of the US presidential election.
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What Trump’s second election as US president might mean for financial markets
With the US presidential election coming up in November 2024, what would a Trump win mean for the financial markets?
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Which currency pairs are likely to be most affected by the volatility surrounding the US presidential election?
2024 US election impact on currencies. Analysis of USD/MXN, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD volatility & trading opportunities amid economic uncertainty.
Learn More
What Kamala Harris' Presidency could mean for financial markets
The potential consequences of Harris' presidency ahead of the US presidential election.
Learn More
What Trump’s second election as US president might mean for financial markets
With the US presidential election coming up in November 2024, what would a Trump win mean for the financial markets?
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Non-Farm Payroll
With the buoyancy of the labor market often used to judge the health of an economy, what did job openings look like across the past six administrations?
- Discounting the effect of various economic events, Democrats created more jobs than Republicans*
Gross Domestic Product
Positioned as the ultimate measure of economic productivity, how was gross domestic product affected by each president, respectively?
- To-date, President Biden boasts the highest average GDP gain*
Inflation rate
With inflation intrinsically linked to monetary policy, how well has each president kept inflation at the target 2% historically?
- While in office, President Trump kept inflation closest to the US target of 2%*
- Despite being the worst-performing currency as of March, the Australian dollar finished 2020 as the best-performing currency, up in value by 11.64%*
- The dollar holds the title as the worst-performing currency of 2020, down -7.66% in value across the year*
- Between Biden’s official confirmation as victor and year end, the dollar continued to lose over 2.50% in value*
*tradingview.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Client Sentiment
How are other traders positioned ahead of the US Election?
Client Sentiment is a tool offered by OANDA by showing the current long vs. short bias of all open positions held by real money OANDA clients.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Upcoming events
As the run in to November's election continues, here's an overview of upcoming events:
Election Day
The people of the United States will decide who becomes their new leader
Inauguration Day
Either Trump or Harris will be officially sworn in as President of the United States
Live Markets
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