Oct 19th 2026 Chart of the Week: Global CPI preview & GBP/NZD technical outlook

• Canada, the UK, and New Zealand are set to release critical CPI data ahead of upcoming central bank rate decisions.¹
  
• UK CPI is expected to accelerate to 3.4% Y/Y1, supporting expectations for a 25 bps BOE rate hike in November.²
  
• GBP/NZD maintains a bullish bias above 2.3321 support, while RBNZ rate expectations remain divided.³

This week features critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases from Canada, the UK, and New Zealand, setting the stage ahead of major central bank monetary policy announcements scheduled throughout the upcoming weeks. Traders are closely watching whether pre-announcement positioning or a data-dependent wait-and-see approach will drive volatility ahead of these key interest rate decisions.

According to Bloomberg economic calendar surveys, UK CPI Y/Y is projected to accelerate to 3.4%, up by 0.3% from the previous reading of 3.1%, while core CPI is projected to rise from 2.6% to 2.8%¹. As the central bank’s primary inflation benchmark, this data remains pivotal for monetary policy trajectories.

After hitting an intermediate low of 2.55% in June, UK CPI Y/Y has trended upward, reaching 3.1% in August 2026. This resurgence has been largely driven by price increases in actual rentals for housing, electricity, gas, other fuels, and lubricants for personal transport equipment⁴. According to Reuters polls, the Bank of England is to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming BOE meeting scheduled for November 5th, 2026⁵.

Bloomberg surveys project New Zealand Q/Q CPI inflation to soften to 0.8%, down from 1.5% in the prior quarter¹. Speaking on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Group annual meetings in Bangkok, Conway noted that spare productive capacity is actively dampening second-round inflationary pass-through from elevated oil and petrochemical prices.

“In May, we were quite clear that the official cash rate needed to increase”

“We think that spare productive capacity is acting to dampen the extent to which the inflation impulse from high oil prices or high petrochemical prices is very likely to feed into those second-round inflationary effects.”⁶

The current official cash rate stands at 2.75%. According to Westpac, markets remain divided on the upcoming RBNZ decision at its meeting scheduled for October 28th 2026; Westpac forecasts remain unchanged. A hold in October and a 25-basis-point hike in December.³

• Since January 2023, GBP/NZD has maintained a well-defined bullish structure, respecting an ascending support trendline (blue line). This primary trendline converges with the annual Pivot Point (PP) at 2.2880, establishing a major macro support threshold below current price action.
  
• The broader uptrend remains constrained by a multi-year, ascending resistance trendline (red line) established in April 2025, which continues to cap topside expansions.
  
• Immediate resistance: Upper ascending trendline resistance (sloping upward from April 2025 high).
  
• Immediate support: 2.3321 (Monthly PP, aligned with 9 EMA and 9 SMA intersection).
  
• Key structural support: 2.2880 (Annual PP, aligned with multi-year primary ascending support line).
  
• Oscillators: Lagging momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic oscillator, remain constructively aligned with the underlying price action, tracking positively without exhibiting severe divergence.
  
• So far, GBP/NZD has maintained a moderately bullish bias, trading above the 2.3321 monthly pivot support level. A sustained hold above this immediate confluence zone keeps the primary upward structure intact toward the upper channel resistance, whereas a decisive break and a close below 2.3321 would risk a deeper mean-reversion test toward the primary annual support zone at 2.2880.

Find the Topical Instruments tool on OANDA Labs

• OANDA’s topical instrument tool reflects a 30% long and 70% short positioning.
  
• The tool reflects lower trading volume, as GBP/NZD falls within the lower end of the volume ranking. In some cases, lower volume may cause slippage and/or exaggerated price moves.
  
• GBP/NZD falls in the mid-range within the most-traded currency pairs.

Abbreviation list:

EMA: Exponential moving average

SMA: Simple moving average

RSI: Relative strength index

% K: Fast stochastic

% D: Slow stochastic

MACD: Moving average convergence divergence

Pivot point: PP

Support: S

Resistance: R

Footnotes

¹https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar

²https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/boe-raise-rates-4-november-economists-narrowly-expect-hold-there-2026-10-15/

³https://assets.dam.westpac.co.nz/is/content/wnzl/dist/all-of-bank/economic-reports/weekly-commentary/Weekly-Commentary_121026_report_12Oct26.pdf

⁴https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/august2026

⁵https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/boe-raise-rates-4-november-economists-narrowly-expect-hold-there-2026-10-15/

⁶https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-10-15/rbnz-chief-economist-direction-of-ocr-most-likely-up-video