Elections and volatility: Your macro market breakdown

• Elections are major catalysts for market volatility, shifting asset pricing from economic data to political risk premiums, which drive massive, long-term trends.
• Political shifts impact financial markets through four key channels: fiscal policy (spending and taxation), central bank monetary alignment, changes in national debt and bond yields, and trade/tariff volatility.
• Currencies appreciate with anticipated fiscal expansion and higher yields, but depreciate rapidly due to political instability. Equities see sector rotations (e.g., between green energy and deregulated financials/industrials) based on the new administration’s platform.
• Commodities are affected by infrastructure pledges (boosting industrial metals/energy) and geopolitical instability (driving gold inflows as a safe haven).
• Case studies demonstrate this: US elections led to market shifts via tax cuts (2016), fiscal stimulus and green energy policy (2020), and tariff/crypto regulatory anticipation (2024). Germany’s fiscal awakening redefined the Euro’s valuation by structurally raising Bund yields.
• Improving traders’ odds requires the following three distinct phases: the pre-election discount (volatility and defensive inflows), the initial 24-48 hour knee-jerk reaction, and the structural realignment, where actual policy implementation sets long-term macro trends.

General elections are among the most significant catalysts for volatility in global financial markets. For macro analysts and traders, an election is not merely a political event; it is a fundamental crossroad that can completely alter a nation’s economic trajectory.

Elections introduce policy uncertainty, whereas markets prefer predictable regulatory, tax, and spending environments. When a major economy heads to the polls, asset pricing shifts from being driven purely by economic data (like inflation or employment figures) to being driven by political risk premiums.

Once an election outcome is clear, markets rapidly adjust to reflect the winning party’s proposed agenda, creating massive trends across currencies, commodities, and stock indices.

When assessing how an election will influence the broader market, analysts break the impact down into key economic transmission channels:

• Fiscal policy (spending & taxation): Right-leaning or market-friendly administrations typically prioritize corporate tax cuts and deregulation, which can boost corporate earnings. Left-leaning administrations often favor increased social spending and infrastructure development, which can boost specific sectors but may require higher corporate or capital gains taxes.
• Monetary policy alignment: While major central banks (like the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank) are legally independent, fiscal policy forces their hand. Massive deficit spending or inflationary tariffs can force a central bank to raise interest rates — or keep them higher for longer — to combat inflation.
• National debt and bond yields: Elections that result in a "clean sweep" (where one party controls both the executive and legislative branches) make it easier to pass sweeping spending bills. This often leads to a higher supply of government bonds, driving bond prices down and pushing bond yields up.
• Trade and tariff volatility: A shift toward protectionism can upend global supply chains, fundamentally shifting capital flows between exporting nations and importing nations.

Currencies act as the ultimate real-time barometer of a country’s perceived economic health and political stability.¹

• The growth and yield play: If an election brings in a government expected to grow the economy via fiscal expansion, capital flows into that country, strengthening the domestic currency. Furthermore, if that fiscal expansion forces the central bank to hike interest rates, the currency gains a "yield advantage," making it highly attractive to global investors.
• The risk premium: Conversely, if an election results in a hung parliament, civil unrest, or a highly populist regime that threatens central bank independence, international investors will pull capital out, causing the currency to depreciate rapidly.

Equity indices react sharply to changes in corporate tax expectations and sector-specific regulations.²

• Broad index movements: Historically, markets have shown to experience a relief rally once election uncertainty is resolved, regardless of who wins, simply because businesses can finally plan for the future.
• Sector rotations: The internal composition of an index shifts dramatically based on political platforms. For example, a government focused on green energy may spark a rally in solar and electric vehicles equities while weighing down traditional oil and gas stocks. Conversely, an administration focused on deregulation tends to spark massive outperformance in the financial (banking) and industrial sectors.

Commodity markets are driven by global supply, demand, and the strength of the US dollar (since most commodities are priced in greenbacks).³

• Industrial metals and energy: If a newly elected government pledges massive infrastructure spending, demand expectations for copper, steel, and crude oil rise, driving prices higher.
• Gold as a safe haven: Historically, during highly contested or volatile election cycles, gold serves as the ultimate hedge against political instability and currency devaluation. If an election threatens to usher in severe inflation or geopolitical tension, gold prices typically spike.

The United States presidential elections are a textbook example of how shifting political regimes alter global macro trends.

Going into the November 2016 election, the consensus expected a status quo victory for Hillary Clinton.⁴ Donald Trump’s surprise win triggered intense overnight volatility; S&P 500 futures initially plummeted 5%. However, by the Wall Street opening, the market staged a massive reversal (See above chart - S&P500 US elections 2016).

• The market impact: Investors immediately priced in pro-growth, inflationary policies. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, which directly supercharged corporate earnings and triggered a prolonged rally in the S&P 500⁵.

• FX and yields: 10-year US Treasury yields saw their sharpest rise in years as bond markets priced in higher inflation and economic growth. This expanding yield differential caused the US Dollar Index (DXY) to strengthen significantly from January 2018 to March 2020 (See above chart - DXY 2018 - 2020).
• The tariff shift: This era also introduced aggressive tariff policies, particularly against China.⁶ Tariffs acted as a tax on imports, which stoked domestic inflation fears, disrupted global supply chains, and heavily weakened emerging market currencies while propping up the defensive posture of the US dollar.

The 2020 election occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing heavily on economic relief and public health. Joe Biden’s victory, alongside a narrow Democratic control of Congress, shifted the market's focus toward government-led industrial policy⁷.

• The market impact: Markets priced in trillions of dollars in fiscal support, later realized via the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act. This massive injection of liquidity fueled a historic bull market in equities. (See above chart S&P500 - 2020 - 2024)
• Sector shifts: Tech and green energy infrastructure sectors significantly outperformed traditional fossil fuels⁸, as billions in subsidies were steered toward clean energy and domestic semiconductor manufacturing.
• Macro policy outcomes: The combination of historic fiscal spending and supply chain shocks ultimately led to decades-high inflation⁹, forcing the Federal Reserve into an aggressive interest rate hiking cycle starting in 2022, which profoundly strengthened the US dollar against global peers.

The 2024 election cycle brought the prospect of structural policy changes back to the forefront, with markets keenly focusing on the future of corporate tax rates, trade policies, and global alliances.

• The "Trump trade" re-emergence: Anticipation and the eventual realization of a republican clean sweep led to an immediate resurgence in the US dollar and a sharp rally in domestic equities, particularly small-cap stocks (via the Russell 2000), which stand to benefit the most from domestic protectionism and deregulation (See above chart - Russell 2000 - November 2024 - current).
• Tariffs and crypto: The explicit focus on universal baseline tariffs and 60% tariffs on China re-ignited fears of sticky inflation, keeping US Treasury yields elevated. Concurrently, promises of a highly favorable regulatory environment for digital assets triggered a historic breakout in cryptocurrency markets¹⁰, the rally took bitcoin BTC/USD from $55000 range to $125000 during the period from September 2024 to September 2025. The rally eventually failed to hold, and BTC/USD has so far been trading within the $65000 - $80000 in 2026.

While US elections dominate global headlines, European elections present an entirely different dynamic due to the structure of the Eurozone, where member states control their own fiscal policies but share a single central bank (the ECB). Germany, as Europe's largest economy, serves as the primary anchor for the euro.

Historically, German elections have favored strict fiscal conservatism, governed by the constitutional "debt brake"¹¹ (Schuldenbremse), which legally limits structural budget deficits. This kept German government bond (Bund) yields artificially low and forced the European Central Bank to carry the burden of stimulating the Eurozone economy through low interest rates.

Recent electoral shifts in Germany — culminating in agreements between the major political blocs (CDU/CSU and SPD)¹² — shattered decades of fiscal stagnation. Spurred by a domestic manufacturing crisis and shifting geopolitical realities, the German government announced an unprecedented €500 billion infrastructure investment fund and an exemption from the rigid debt brake for defense and core structural spending¹³.

• The impact on fixed income: The bond market experienced a structural regime change. Upon the realization that Germany would significantly ramp up debt issuance to fund this package, the 10-year German Bund yield experienced its largest weekly increase since Germany's reunification in 1990, rising past 2.80%.

• The impact on the euro (EUR): This fiscal awakening fundamentally altered the euro's valuation. Higher German bond yields narrowed the yield gap between the United States and Europe. Because Europe was now supporting its own growth through government spending rather than relying solely on monetary stimulus, expectations for aggressive ECB rate cuts dissipated. The euro reacted with swift, sustained appreciation against major currency pairs, demonstrating how a localized shift in political will can redefine a global currency trend (See above chart EUR/USD March - July 2025).

To improve the odds of trading or investing successfully around general elections, one must separate political ideology from economic reality. It goes without saying that there are and could be many other factors impacting the outcome of an election, however, a general approach requires analyzing three distinct phases:

• The pre-election discount: Volatility rises, trading volumes thin out, and defensive assets (Gold, USD) often see inflows as markets hedge against an unexpected outcome.
• The knee-jerk reaction: The immediate 24-to-48-hour response is driven by algorithms and position-covering. Initial sell-offs or rallies are frequently exaggerated.
• The structural realignment: Over the subsequent weeks and months, the market shifts to pricing in the actual policy implementation — tracking tax legislation, tariff decrees, and budget deficits. This is where the long-term macro trends are born.

Footnotes:

1 - https://www.oanda.com/us-en/trade-tap-blog/analysis/fundamental/could-america-lose-global-currency-race

2 - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3727719

3 - https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2019/jun/pdf/exploring-the-supply-and-demand-drivers-of-commodity-prices.pdf

4 - https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/

5 - https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48485

6 - https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/#timeline

7 - https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house

8 - https://www.csis.org/analysis/navigating-new-energy-investment-paradigm

9 - https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2023/ec-202308-impacts-supply-chain-disruptions-on-inflation

10 - https://www.whitehouse.gov/crypto/

11 - https://www.dw.com/en/what-is-germanys-debt-brake/a-67587332

12 - https://www.deutschland.de/en/topic/politics/coalition-treaty-new-federal-government-germany-overview

13 - https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/the-beginning-is-complete-2377326