With Democrats leading the voting charge, a lot will have to break in Trump’s favour in order for him to emerge victorious. In the last week of the campaign, Trump has been focused on the electorate in Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. President Trump is trying to make a comeback in the Midwest and if his rallies are a sign of his support, he should feel confident that his base is not fraying.
The path to 270 electoral votes for President Trump will require a tremendous Election Day turnout. If Biden can hold the Clinton states from 2016, Trump still can win it if he wins Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania. There is a big difference with the polls of 2020 and the polls when President Trump upset Hillary Clinton. In 2016, the polls missed a large part of Trump’s base and there were many more undecided voters in the final stages of the campaign. After some tweaking, the polls did a better job in the 2018 midterms. It is still possible for a big surprise, but a lot has to go right for President Trump to be victorious.