A hawkish Fed repricing has failed to trigger a decisive US dollar breakout, putting AUD/NZD, EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY in focus for September.
Key takeaways
- The US Dollar Index remains range-bound despite a hawkish Fed repricing, shifting the potentially stronger macro risk/reward opportunities towards FX crosses.
- AUD/NZD and GBP/JPY retain bullish configurations, with both rebounding from their 200-day moving averages and holding above key technical support levels.
- EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP and CHF/JPY retain bearish technical biases, with downside momentum and key resistance levels limiting their respective recoveries.
Following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 28, 2026, global financial conditions have tightened amid a sharp repricing toward a more hawkish Fed funds futures market.
US Dollar Index trapped in a sideways range
Stressing that “the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices” and pointing out that 54% of PCE basket components are still compounding above 3%1 Warsh effectively lifted September FOMC’s 25 basis points rate hike odds to 67% (up from around 30% pre-speech) (see Fig. 1).
Fig. 1: CME FedWatch tool aggregated FOMC meeting probabilities as of 1 Sep 2026 (Source: CME website). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
This hawkish shift drove a bear flattening across the US Treasury yield curve. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has entered a potential broad sideways chop near key resistance at 100.54 (see Fig. 2), caught between higher US short-end yields and offsetting bets on tighter policy across select G10 central banks.
The 2-year spread premium between the US Treasury note and an equal-weighted average of the sovereign bonds from Germany, the UK, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, and China has remained below the 1.79% resistance (see Fig. 2).
Fig. 2: US Dollar Index major trend as of 1 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Hence, the most potentially compelling macro risk/reward opportunities over the next multi-week horizon lie squarely in FX crosses rather than direct USD pairs.
AUD/NZD – Rebounded from 200-day MA with bullish MACD
Fig. 3: AUD/NZD medium-term trend as of 1 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
After a 12-week decline of 2.8% from its 52-week high of 1.2287 printed on 27 May 2026 to the 20 August 2026 low, the AUD/NZD has staged a rebound after a retest on the key 200-day moving average and traded back above the 50-day moving average since 27 August 2026.
In addition, the daily MACD trend indicator has staged a similar bullish breakout from a three-month descending resistance on 14 August 2026 and trended upwards above its centreline since 27 August 2026 (see Fig. 3).
These observations suggest that the major uptrend phase from the 22 April 2025 low is likely intact.
Watch the 1.1940 key medium-term pivotal support; a clearance above 1.2320 intermediate resistance sees the next medium-term resistances at 1.2630 and 1.2930.
On the other hand, a daily close below 1.1940 exposes the next medium-term supports at 1.1665 and 1.1414.
EUR/AUD – Potential bearish consolidation below 1.6590
Fig. 4: EUR/AUD medium-term trend as of 1 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Since the 11 March 2026 swing low of 1.6135, the price action of EUR/AUD has been consolidating within a potential six-month bearish continuation pattern, known as a “Descending Triangle,” below the key 200-day moving average (see Fig. 4).
The daily RSI momentum indicator has already staged a bearish breakdown below its former ascending support, indicating a potential revival of bearish momentum.
A break and a daily close below the “Descending Triangle” range support of 1.6135 exposes the next medium-term supports at 1.5850 and 1.5300.
However, a clearance and a daily close above the 1.6590 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also near the 200-day moving average) would see the next medium-term resistances at 1.6847 and 1.7290.
EUR/GBP – Oscillating within a nine-month downtrend
Fig. 5: EUR/GBP medium-term trend as of 1 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The EUR/GBP has continued to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel since the 14 November 2025 high of 0.8865, and the daily RSI momentum indicator remains capped below a descending resistance line around the 58 level (see Fig. 5).
These observations suggest that the nine-month downtrend in EUR/GBP remains intact. Watch the 0.8625 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also close to the 200-day moving average), and a break below 0.8530 intermediate support exposes the medium-term supports at 0.8455 and 0.8370.
On the flip side, a clearance and a daily close above 0.8625 sees the next medium-term resistances at 0.8735 and 0.8790.
GBP/JPY – Holding above 200-day moving average
Fig. 6: GBP/JPY medium-term trend as of 1 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The recent 4.6% decline in GBP/JPY from its 52-week high of 219.61, printed on 15 July 2026, and reinforced by the US-Japan joint FX intervention to prop up the Japanese yen in late July 20262, stalled at the key 200-day moving average on 3 August 2026 (see Fig. 6).
GBP/JPY has staged a rebound and traded back above the 50-day moving average. So far, it has held above the key 200-day moving average since 22 May 2026, suggesting that the major uptrend phase from the 9 April 2025 low of 184.38 is likely intact.
Watch the 212.40 key medium-term pivotal support (also close to the 200-day moving average); a clearance above 219.61intermediate resistance, sees the next medium-term resistances at 223.00 and 229.65.
However, a daily close below 212.40 would negate the bullish tone, exposing the next medium-term supports at 209.63/207.68 and 200.28.
CHF/JPY – Below 200-day moving average with bearish momentum
Fig. 7: CHF/JPY medium-term trend as of 1 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
CHF/JPY has traded below the key 200-day moving average since 30 July 2026, and the daily RSI momentum indicator remains below a key descending resistance at around the 56 level, indicating bearish momentum (see Fig. 7).
Watch the 199.20 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below the 196.60 intermediate support (also the 20-day moving average) exposes the next medium-term supports at 192.65 and 189.05/187.60.
On the other hand, a clearance and a daily close above 199.20 sees the next medium-term resistance at 201.55 and even the current all-time high area of 204.00/204.43.
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.
