Nasdaq 100 has fallen sharply from its October record high as fears of AI infrastructure strain and semiconductor underperformance, along with deteriorating momentum, reinforce a bearish setup.
Key takeaways
- Nasdaq 100 has fallen 4.31% in October, with weakness accelerating after its 6 October record high as AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks sold off.
- SOXX has broken below its 50-day moving average and rising channel support, while weakening relative strength versus QQQ points to further semiconductor underperformance.
- A break below 28,795 may expose 28,200/27,876, while a daily close above 30,200 would invalidate the bearish bias and reopen the path towards 30,715/30,773.
The technology-centric Nasdaq 100 fell 4.31% from the start of October 2026 to 29,187 on Friday, 16 October 2026, including a 5.49% decline last week that underperformed the S&P 500 (-0.09%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.11%) (see Fig. 1).
The weakness has accelerated since its 6 October 2026 all-time high, rather than being a continuous sell-off throughout the month, with the decline dragged down by weakness in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks.
South Korea’s KOSPI and US PHLX Semiconductor Index plummeted by 18.70% and 13.19%, respectively, since the start of October through Friday, 16 October, amid heightened fears that expensive AI-related capital expenditure is exposing vulnerabilities in the current AI buildout.
CoreWeave’s shares lost approximately 25% over five sessions through Friday’s trading, while its bond yields exceeded 15%. This raises concerns about refinancing and customers’ ability to fund equipment purchases, creating a potential spillover effect on semiconductor demand.1
Fig. 1: Performance of major global stock indices from 1 Oct to 16 Oct 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Semiconductors’ underperformance may trigger further weaknesses in Nasdaq 100
Fig. 2: US PHLX Semiconductor Index ETF (SOXX) medium-term trend as of 16 Oct 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The recent two-month rebound of 28.5% seen on the exchange-traded fund of the US PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOXX) from the 29 July 2026 low to 2 Oct 2026 high is likely a corrective rebound, aka “dead cat bounce,” rather than the start of a new medium-term bullish impulsive up move sequence.
The price action of the SOXX has staged a bearish breakdown below the 50-day moving average and the ascending channel support dating back to the 29 July 2026 low, coupled with an ongoing deterioration in volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of SOXX against the Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded fund (QQQ) (see Fig. 2).
Hence, a break below the 463.78 key medium-term support (also the 200-day moving average) on the SOXX may trigger further weakness on the Nasdaq 100.
Let’s now focus on the technical chart of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) to decipher its potential multi-week outlook.
Fig. 3: US Nasdaq 100 CFD medium-term trend as of 19 Oct 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
After it printed a fresh intraday peak of 31,400 on 6 October 2026, the price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD has declined by 7.3% and re-integrated below the former all-time high of 30,773 printed on 3 June 2026 and the 50-day moving average, indicating a potential bull trap (see Fig. 3).
In addition, the 4-hour MACD trend indicator has continued to show a bearish trend condition since its break below the centreline on 12 October 2026.
30,200 is a key medium-term pivotal resistance level that could maintain a potential multi-week bearish trend bias.
A break below 28,795 exposes the next medium-term support at 28,200/27,876 (also the key 200-day moving average) in the first step.
On the flip side, a daily close above 30,200 invalidates the bearish bias, opening the door to a potential squeeze up to retest the next medium-term resistances at 30,715/30,773 and 31,300/31,400 (the current all-time high area).
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.
