Nasdaq 100 has broken out of a four-week correction, with semiconductor leadership, stronger relative strength and improving momentum supporting a renewed bullish setup.
Key takeaways
- Nasdaq 100 has reclaimed its 20- and 50-day moving averages, signalling a potential bullish turn after its four-week, 4.8% corrective decline.
- Semiconductors are leading the recovery, while the sector’s volatility-adjusted relative strength versus the S&P 500 has turned positive.
- 30,195 is the key potential upside trigger. A breakout may expose 30,715/30,773, while a daily close below 29,250 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
The US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has undergone a four-week choppy sideways corrective decline of 4.8% from the 17 August 2026 high of 30,258 to the 17 September 2026 low of 28,799.
Fig. 1: Month-to-date global stock indices performance as of 18 Sep 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Semiconductor stocks led the ongoing recovery
The US Nasdaq 100 CFD is heavily weighted toward Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure-related and semiconductor stocks, and its price action has staged a bullish breakout from a four-week sideways corrective configuration, trading back above the 20- and 50-day moving averages since 17 September 2026.
The ongoing recovery is being led by semiconductor stocks, with the US PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index ranking as the top performer among major benchmark stock indices, with a month-to-date gain of 5.61% as of 18 September 2026 (see Fig. 1).
On Monday, 21 September 2026, Asian session, the US Nasdaq 100 CFD has extended its gains with an intraday rally of 0.45% at the time of writing, as media reports stated that US and Chinese officials had agreed to set up a dialogue on AI aimed at reaching a common understanding on goals and threats1.
These diplomatic actions have potentially softened the rhetoric of high-tech rivalry ahead of the Trump-Xi summit on Thursday, 24 September 2026.
Let’s now decipher the medium-term (1 to 3 weeks) outlook of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD from a technical analysis perspective.
Watch the 30,195 potential upside trigger level
Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD medium-term trend as of 21 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Fig. 3: iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector ETF medium-term trend as of 18 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD has potentially turned bullish since 17 September 2026, as it has traded back above the 20- and 50-day moving averages.
In addition, the 4-hour RSI indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its former significant descending resistance on Monday, 21 September 2026, at this time of writing, suggesting a potential revival of medium-term bullish momentum (see Fig. 2).
Also, the current strength of US semiconductor stocks, which are leading the ongoing bullish revival of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD, shows no clear signs of exhaustion.
The volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of the iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector ETF-S&P 500 ratio has formed a bullish crossover above its centreline, indicating potential outperformance of US semiconductor stocks over the broader US stock market (S&P 500) (see Fig. 3).
Watch the 30,195 intermediate resistance on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD; a clearance above it may trigger a retest of the current all-time area of 30,715/30,773, printed on 3 June 2026, in the first step.
However, a daily close below 29,250, the key medium-term pivotal support (also the 50-day moving average), invalidates the bullish scenario, with a possible retest of the 28,880 range support in place since 24 August 2026. Failure to hold above 28,880 may expose the next medium-term support at 28,200.
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.
