North American weekly update: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell concluded his final press conference and offered little direction on what comes next (except that he will remain on the Board of Governors). North American currencies are bouncing higher again with stronger Oil prices, and markets remain confused.
After an incredibly confusing start to the week, traders desperately searching for a lifeline of macroeconomic certainty found absolutely no comfort in today's highly anticipated FOMC policy decision.
Taking a step back, Stock Investors (particularly in tech) don't seem so concerned about these themes, but fundamentals remain confusing and could be a factor in the return of broader Market anxiety.
Nasdaq daily chart. April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Federal Reserve officially held its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range.
In what marks Jerome Powell’s final FOMC press conference, the outgoing Chair is currently at the podium and announced that he would stay at the Board of Governors for the time that Kevin Warsh gets comfortable with his new role1.
The committee did not provide forward guidance regarding the timing of future moves, explicitly citing the heightened, compounding uncertainty stemming from the ongoing Middle East developments. While Powell noted that job gains remain low on average, the broader unemployment rate is little changed, creating a highly resilient economic backdrop, with Employment demand also easing throughout the last year2.
The Chair is hinting at the increasingly conflicting mandates of sticky inflation and a tight labor market, but one thing is crystal clear for traders searching for clues: rate cuts are absolutely not on the agenda as long as the Economy grows. And Powell made quite a few mentions on that page3.
With the current Fed Chair exiting the stage, market doves looking for an easing lifeline will now be forced to lean entirely on Kevin Warsh's future promises and expected political bias to price in any type of dovish movement4.
WTI Oil 2H chart, April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The broader macroeconomic picture is still distorted by a cloudy geopolitical landscape. Risk assets are quite resilient, withstanding these toxic fundamentals reflected by WTI Crude Oil pushing back up to the $110 handle.
The logistical nightmare in the Middle East shows no signs of easing.
The US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz continues, and President Trump just doubled down on his maximum pressure campaign, stating firmly today that he "will not lift the naval blockade without a deal on the nuclear program."5
So essentially, the blockade should hold until Iran economically chokes out from their Oil gluts and is forced to come back to the negotiation table.
Intraday technical levels for the USD/CAD
USD/CAD 4H chart, April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
USD/CAD failed to maintain its post-Bank of Canada rally, with communications from Governor Macklem indicating relative strength in the Canadian economy6.
The 4H 50-period moving average is acting as major support and an indicator for the action to come, with both the US dollar and the Canadian dollar profiting from stronger Crude oil prices.
Levels of interest for USD/CAD:
Resistance levels
- 1.3720 – 1.3750 pivot 50-Day moving average (1.37330).
- 1.38 mini-resistance +/- 150 pips
- 1.3850 resistance
- 1.39 to 1.3925 support turned resistance
- 1.3950 mini-resistance (range highs and recent top)
Support levels
- 1.36667 4H 50-period MA
- 1.3630 to 1.3660 key support
- 1.3550 main 2025 support (range lows)
- End-January lows 1.34820
US dollar mid-week performance vs major currencies
USD vs other majors since last Monday, April 29, 2026 - Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US and Canada economic calendar for the rest of the week
US and Canadian data by next Wednesday, May 6th, 2026. Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
Footnotes:
1 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-chair-board-trump/
2 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-warsh-powell.html
4 https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/29/fed-rates-powell-warsh-inflation-00898525
5 https://www.axios.com/2026/04/29/trump-iran-nuclear-deal-blockade
6 https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-april-2026-9.7181093
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high-risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
