North American weekly update: Markets are slowly reflecting the effects of the extreme inflation wave gripping global economies, more than 2.5 months after the start of the US-Iran conflict. The US-China Trump-Xi meeting is also taking a central spot towards the end of the week, with traders awaiting more details.
Traders have spent months getting ready for the quintessential Trump-Xi summit, and now it is finally taking place.1
As the two leaders meet in person in Beijing, the broader market is waiting to see what happens. Many expect this meeting to bring major geopolitical and economic progress to push back against the de-globalization worries that were common in 2025.2
While investors await further news, most asset classes remain in consolidation.
WTI Crude Oil is the only exception to the market pause. Continuous supply shortages are pushing oil prices back above $100, and even though the US-Iran war is getting less daily coverage, its serious economic effects are becoming more obvious.
WTI Crude 4H chart. May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Tuesday’s YoY US CPI report showed a large 3.8% increase, 0.1% above expectations, but what really worried traders was Wednesday’s core Producer Price Index (PPI) release. Wholesale inflation came in at 5.2% year over year, well above the expected 4.3 1.2% rise for the month!
These back-to-back inflation reports are not so surprising, but definitely unpleasant. Since producer costs usually lead to higher consumer prices later, the high PPI suggests that retail inflation could remain high in the coming months.
Wednesday morning US data. Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
This structural inflation spike almost guarantees there will be no rate cuts at the upcoming meetings, as seen in the Fed rate pricing.4
This rise in structural inflation means the Federal Reserve and other central banks will not be able to find an easy solution.
As seen in the last meetings across major Central Banks, policymakers are already changing their guidance and reconsidering whether to cut rates or raise them further.5
Economic clarity from the Trump-Xi talks, the broader FX markets, particularly the US dollar, are remaining stable, bracing for the next massive fundamental catalyst.
Let's dive right into our mid-week North American Markets recap.
Intraday technical levels for the USD/CAD
USD/CAD 4H chart. May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Volatility in FX Markets is slowly decreasing and USD/CAD, while rallying from its range lows, seems to be declining the pace of its rise, as indicated by the diverging RSI from overbought levels.
Levels of interest for USD/CAD:
Resistance levels
- 1.3720 – 1.3750 resistance
- 1.38 mini-resistance +/- 150 pips
- 1.3950 mini-resistance (range highs and recent top)
Support levels
- 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key pivot (4H 50-period MA)
- 1.3550 main 2025 support (range lows)
- 1.35 psychological support
- End-January lows 1.34820
US dollar mid-week performance vs major currencies
USD vs other majors since last Monday, May 13, 2026 - Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The US dollar is back in a much stronger position after recent weeks of struggle, but the rise isn't uniform – with the exception of the yen, all Asia-Pacific major currencies are up against the greenback, as their respective Central Banks' hawkish pricing dominates.
US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday (May 20th)
US and Canadian data towards next Wednesday (May 20). Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar
Footnotes:
1 - https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/13/trump-summit-xi-trade-hormuz-00915983
3 - https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/04/from-ppi-to-cpi/
4 - https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
5 - https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-central-banks-graphic-2026-04-30/
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high-risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
