Monthly tactical view: AUDJPY, Japanese indices and silver in focus.

• AUD/JPY: Rising Aussie inflation and a likely RBA pause support further upside, with key support at 97.40 and resistances at 102.15 and 104.95.
• Japan 225: Strong foreign inflows and improving EPS growth keep the Nikkei’s uptrend intact toward the 57,000 region.
• Silver (XAG/USD): After a record high, silver shows signs of a medium-term top; a break below US$45.80 may deepen the pullback.

For November, we will focus on three markets: AUD/JPY, Japan 225, and an update on Silver (XAG/USD) to note in the medium-term (multi-week) horizon, based on the latest momentum (technical analysis) and macro developments.

The Australian central bank (RBA) has cut its policy cash rate three times by 25 basis points each so far in 2025, in February, May, and August. Lowering the cash rate from a 13-year high of 4.35% in January 2025 to its current level of 3.6%.

After nearly three years of easing price pressures, Australia’s inflation trend appears to be turning higher again. Core CPI accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 from 2.7% in the previous quarter, while the monthly CPI indicator climbed to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August (see Fig. 1).

The hotter-than-expected data, coupled with easing U.S.–China trade tensions following last week’s economic accord in South Korea, could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to hit pause on its rate-cut cycle at the upcoming November and December meetings.

Against this backdrop, the Australian dollar may find renewed support as widening rate differentials work in its favour. The AUD/JPY pair, in particular, looks poised for further potential upside, reinforced by the Bank of Japan’s less hawkish policy guidance and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s tilt toward a more growth-oriented policy stance.

Since 17 October 2025, the AUD/JPY has traded higher towards an 11-month high of 101.10 at the time of writing.

The price actions of the AUD/JPY have continued to oscillate within an ascending channel in place since the 9 April 2025 low of 86.05 and traded above its upwards sloping 20-day and 50-day moving averages (see Fig. 2).

These observations support a potential ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of the AUD/JPY coupled with positive momentum as seen on the latest configurations of its daily RSI momentum indicator that continues to print “higher lows” above the 50 level and has not reached overbought condition (above 70).

Watch the 97.40 key medium-term pivotal support on the AUD/JPY for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 102.15 and 104.95.

On the other hand, a break below 97.40 key support may damage the medium-term uptrend phase of the AUD/JPY to expose the next medium-term supports at 94.75 (also the 200-day moving average) and 92.30.

The 52-week average of net purchases of Japanese equities listed on the Tokyo and Nagoya stock exchanges has jumped significantly from 6.2 billion in the week of 8 August 2025 to 94.3 billion as of 24 October 2025 (see Fig. 3).

The further increase in foreign net inflows into the Japanese stock market may boost the current bullish sentiment of the benchmark Nikkei 225, as it soared past 52,000 for the first time last week.

The forward 12-month earnings per share (EPS) growth for the component stocks of the Nikkei 225 in aggregate has started to improve after a slowdown in the past 11 months. The forward EPS growth of the Nikkei 225 has recently increased to 8.17% y/y in October 2025 from 7% in September 2025 (see Fig. 4).

The current earnings growth uptick suggests that more sell-side analysts have raised earnings projections that may propel the Nikkei 225 higher.

The medium-term uptrend phase of the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) remains intact as it continued to oscillate within an ascending channel in place since the 7 April 2025 low of 30,343 (see Fig. 5).

In addition, the daily MACD trend indicator has continued to trend steadily upwards above its centreline, which supports a bullish trending phase in motion

Watch the 48,540 key medium-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average), and a clearance above 52,840/53,310 intermediate resistance may see the next medium-term resistance coming in at 57,130/57,590.

On the flip side, failure to hold at the 48,540 key support negates the bullish tone to trigger a potential multi-week corrective decline and exposes the next medium-term supports at 45,930 (also the 50-day moving average) and 43,790.

This is an update to our prior “Chart of the week – Silver is undergoing a bullish acceleration phase” published on 6 October 2025.

The price actions of silver (XAG/USD) have staged the expected bullish acceleration and surpassed the medium-term resistance at US$51.94/52.10 as it printed a fresh all-time high of US$54.48 on 17 October 2025 (see Fig. 6).

Thereafter, it tumbled by 16.4% in a spate of just two weeks to print a low of US$45.55 on 28 October 2025.

Several technical elements suggest that the medium-term uptrend phase from the 7 April 2025 low may have ended, and silver (XAG/USD) faces the potential risk of a multi-week corrective decline sequence to retrace its steep acceleration seen in the past two months.

Firstly, the price actions of silver (XAG/USD) have formed a monthly bearish reversal “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern at the end of October 2025.

Secondly, its daily RSI momentum indicator has broken down below a multi-month ascending support that linked the “higher lows” since 7 April 2025.

Watch the US$54.00/54.48 key medium-term pivotal resistance for silver (XAG/USD), and a break below the intermediate support of US$45.80 (also the 50-day moving average) may expose the next medium-term support at US$42.75.

However, a clearance above US$54.48 key resistance invalidates the bearish scenario to resume its bullish impulsive sequence for the next medium-term resistances to come in at US$55.67/56.30 and US$58.66/58.84.