The Nasdaq 100 is showing signs of a bullish catch-up as South Korean semiconductor stocks rebound, and improving technical momentum points to a potential multi-week recovery.
Key takeaways
- Nasdaq 100 is regaining leadership as a sharp KOSPI rebound supports a potential recovery in AI infrastructure and semiconductor-related stocks.
- Bullish technical momentum is improving after the Nasdaq 100 broke its descending trendline, reclaimed the 50-day MA and saw MACD strengthen.
- 30,715/30,773 is the key breakout zone; a clearance may expose 31,330 and 32,010, while a close below 29,205 invalidates the bullish bias.
In July 2026, the Nasdaq 100 was the worst-performing major US stock index, recording a monthly loss of 5.15% versus marginal gains in the S&P 500 (+0.09%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.34%) (see Fig. 1).
Fig. 1: Monthly global stock indices performance as of 31 Jul 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The underperformance of the Nasdaq 100 in the prior month was due to the “elevator up, elevator down” effect of AI infrastructure-related stocks and high-memory-bandwidth semiconductor stocks, which recorded triple-digit returns in the first half of 2026.
These stocks witnessed an “elevator down” effect in July, where South Korea’s KOSPI (significant weighting in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics) and the US PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index recorded a double-digit decline of 20.57% and 15.29% due to overvaluation and high leverage fears that triggered a negative feedback loop into the Nasdaq 100 (see Fig. 1).
KOSPI potential bullish reversal after a retest at the 200-day moving average
Fig. 2: KOSPI medium-term trend with Nasdaq 100 as of 14 Aug 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Fig. 3: Month-to-date global stock indices performance as of 14 Aug 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
South Korea’s KOSPI’s extreme corrective decline of 44% from the current all-time high printed on 19 June 2026 to the 29 July 2026 low of 5,263 has stabilised and reversed upwards after a retest at the key 200-day moving average (see Fig. 2).
Interestingly, KOSPI is now the top-performing major stock index with an August month-to-date gain of 11.51% that lifted the Nasdaq 100 to become the top-performing US stock index with a return of 4.41% over the S&P 500 (+2.44%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.04%) (see Fig. 3).
Right now, let’s decipher the latest medium-term (multi-week) outlook on the Nasdaq 100 from a technical analysis perspective.
End of corrective decline, potential start of bullish impulsive up-move
Fig. 4: US Nasdaq 100 CFD medium-term trend as of 17 Aug 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The 6-week corrective decline of 12% seen in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) from its current intraday all-time high of 30,773, printed on 3 June 2026, to the 30 July 2026 low of 27,093 may have ended (see Fig. 4).
Price action has staged a bullish breakout above a medium-term descending trendline that capped previous rallies since 22 June 2026 and has reintegrated above the 50-day moving average on 4 August 2026.
In addition, the 4-hour MACD indicator has continued to trend upwards steadily above its centreline since 31 July 2026.
These observations suggest that the US Nasdaq 100 CFD is likely undergoing a new potential medium-term bullish impulsive up-move sequence.
Watch the 29,205 key medium-term pivotal support (also the 50-day moving average), and a clearance above 30,715/30,773 (all-time high area) may see the next medium-term resistances at 31,330 and 32,010 (Fibonacci extension clusters).
On the other hand, a bearish breakdown and a daily close below 29,205 would invalidate the bullish tone, exposing the next medium-term support at 28,630/28,200.
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.
