March 2026 gold market overview: geopolitical tensions and market paralysis

Geopolitical shocks and the "fog of war" 

The primary driver of current market uncertainty is a significant military escalation in the Middle East. 

• On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran to eliminate its nuclear program and topple its government. 
• Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel and GCC states, activated Hezbollah, and closed the Straits of Hormuz. 
• The closure of the Straits has removed approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil per day from the market and reduced global LNG supply by roughly 20%. 

A market in paralysis 

Despite these massive shocks, which typically trigger a sharp surge in gold prices, financial markets have remained remarkably calm. 

• Gold initially spiked to an intra-day high of USD 5,418/oz following the initial conflict. 
• However, prices have since eased as daily trading volume on the CME declined and North American funds sold nearly 50t of gold-backed ETFs. 
• Financial markets appear "paralysed" by the possibility that a transactional U.S. President may suddenly declare "Mission Accomplished" to end the conflict. 
• Short-term option volatility skew is essentially flat, indicating that the options market sees risk in either direction in the near term. 

March 2026 precious metals price snapshot 

As of March 10, 2026, the performance of the precious metals sector is as follows: 

• Gold: USD 5,174/oz (Up 3.0% month-over-month; up 79.1% year-over-year) 
• Silver: USD 88.75/oz (Up 10.0% month-over-month; up 176.4% year-over-year) 
• Platinum: USD 2,211/oz (Up 6.0% month-over-month; up 130.9% year-over-year) 
• Palladium: USD 1,700/oz (Down 0.5% month-over-month; up 80.3% year-over-year) 

Supportive long-term fundamentals 

While the short-term outlook is confused, the underlying fundamentals for gold remain strong. 

• Official sector buying remains well above pre-pandemic averages, as central banks value gold's lack of default risk and role as a store of value. 
• China has dominated year-to-date ETF buying with +52.4t, followed by India at +18.9t, representing a shift in Asian household behavior toward gold investment vehicles. 
• Total gold supply growth is expected to be modest, expanding by around 1.4% YoY as miners operate near full capacity. 

Technical indicators 

Gold remains firmly within its upward channel, trading significantly above its 200-day moving average of USD 4,023/oz. For now, immediate support is found at USD 5,000/oz, while resistance stands at the January all-time high of USD 5,594/oz. 

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