April 2026 index market overview: Ceasefire brings relief amid valuation concerns

US equities: Rebounding from sentiment lows 

The US market saw a significant recovery on Wednesday, April 8, 2026, following the ceasefire news. The S&P 500 climbed to 6,783, moving above its 200-day moving average. This rally followed a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment during March, which saw a jump in demand for equity put options. 

• Valuation moderating: The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio has softened from a peak of 23.2x to approximately 20x. 
• Earnings strength: US corporate profits are currently expanding at a rapid 14.3% YoY pace, supported by robust capital expenditure in generative AI platforms. 
• Margin debt: Despite a slight drop, FINRA margin debt remains elevated at $1.25 trillion, suggesting significant market exposure remains. 

FTSE 100: Energy and defense provide a cushion 

The FTSE 100 has demonstrated resilience, gaining 1.9% MoM and 38.1% YoY. The index has been notably supported by its high exposure to energy and resources. 

• Sector strength: Gains in BP (+13%), Shell (+7%), and Glencore (+12.7%) have helped offset weakness in consumer-facing sectors. 
• Defense boost: BAE Systems has surged 32.3% year-to-date, providing further stability to the index. 
• Shock absorber: With a forward P/E of 13.3x, the FTSE 100 is trading in line with its post-millennium average, acting as a potential cushion against an earnings slowdown. 

DAX 40: High sensitivity to global risk 

Germany's DAX 40 rebounded 2.8% MoM to 24,081, though it remains highly sensitive to global equity risk metrics. The index remains below its 200-day moving average of 24,098. 

• Shifting composition: SAP has seen its index weighting tumble to 8.87% due to generative AI concerns, while Siemens Energy has soared 208%, becoming the sixth-largest company in the index. 
• Concentration risk: The DAX 40 remains highly concentrated, with the six largest companies accounting for roughly 45% of the index. 

Price snapshot (9 April 2026) 

• S&P 500: 6,783 (0.0% MoM; 24.3% YoY) 
• Nasdaq: 24,903 (-0.2% MoM; 30.1% YoY) 
• Dow Jones: 47,910 (0.8% MoM; 18.0% YoY) 
• FTSE 100: 10,609 (1.9% MoM; 38.1% YoY) 
• DAX 40: 24,081 (2.8% MoM; 18.3% YoY) 

Looking ahead: Key indicators to watch 

The upcoming weeks will be critical for determining if the early April rebound can be sustained. Investors should monitor: 

• Energy prices: WTI Crude has risen 14.9% MoM, posing a risk to corporate margins. 
• US inflation: The March CPI report (April 10) is expected to show a 0.9% MoM jump due to rising fuel costs. 
• Corporate earnings: Results from JPMorgan, Alphabet, and Microsoft later in April will provide clarity on private credit risks and AI investments. 

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