The US dollar remains technically supported despite softer Treasury yields and reduced odds of a Fed rate hike, putting four major USD pairs and CHF/JPY in focus for November.
Key takeaways
- The US Dollar Index remains technically supported after retesting its 50-day moving average and reclaiming 101.80 despite softer yields and Fed repricing.
- AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD retain potential bearish technical structures.
- CHF/JPY is the main bullish cross, with a breakout above its 50-day moving average and stronger RSI momentum.
Five FX pairs you could monitor in November and why.
Democrats won both chambers in the 3 November 2026 US midterms, setting up divided government when the new Congress convenes on 3 January 2027.
The dollar initially fell, then drew haven demand as AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks sold off on Thursday, 5 November 2026; the two-year US Treasury yields dropped 13 basis points for the week as of 6 November to 4.46% at the time of writing, breaking below the 50-day moving average, and the December Fed rate hike odds fell to about 70%, from around 80% on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool (see Fig. 1).
Fig. 1: CME FedWatch tool FOMC meeting probabilities for the 9 Dec 2026 meeting as of 5 Nov 2026 (Source: CME website). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
US Dollar Index remains on support
Fig. 2: US Dollar Index major trend as of 6 Nov 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
After a brief three-week pullback of 1.8% from the 52-week high of 102.95, the US Dollar Index retested the rising 50-day moving average, re-entered above a key major pullback support at 101.80 and formed an impending weekly bullish reversal “Hammer” candlestick pattern at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).
These observations suggest that a major bullish breakout scenario, detected during the week of 28 September 2026, from its prior 12-month range configuration remains intact.
Right now, let’s focus on 4 major USD pairs and a cross pair from a technical analysis perspective.
AUD/USD – Major bearish “Double Top” in motion
Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term trend as of 6 Nov 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
After AUD/USD failed to break above its current 52-week high of 0.7278 on 9 September 2026, its recent price action has formed a potential major bearish “Double Top” pattern (see Fig. 3).
In addition, AUD/USD has broken below the key 200-day moving average, with ongoing bearish momentum evident in its daily RSI.
Key levels to note include the 0.6865 neckline support of the “Double Top”; a bearish breakdown with a daily close below it exposes the next medium-term supports at 0.6670 and 0.6540.
However, a daily close above 0.7075 (also the 200-day moving average) puts the next medium-term resistance at 0.7155 in the first step.
NZD/USD – Medium-term bearish range breakdown below 50-day MA
Fig. 4: NZD/USD medium-term trend as of 6 Nov 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The NZD/USD staged a bearish exit (below 0.5580) on Friday, 6 November 2026, from a medium-term descending triangle range configuration that had been in place since 21 November 2025 (see Fig. 4).
Key levels to note include the 0.5700 key medium-term pivotal resistance; the next medium-term supports are at 0.5510, 0.5445, and 0.5364.
On the flip side, a daily close above 0.5700 exposes the next medium-term resistances at 0.5820 (also the 200-day moving average) and 0.5935 (upper boundary of the major descending channel from the 30 September 2024 high).
EUR/USD – Oscillating within a 9-month descending channel
Fig. 5: EUR/USD medium-term trend as of 6 Nov 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Despite a 3-week sideways movement since 14 October 2026, the broader trend for EUR/USD remains bearish, as price action remains within a medium-term (9-month) descending channel in place since the 28 January 2026 high of 1.2083 (see Fig. 5).
Key levels to note include the 1.1325/1364 medium-term pivotal resistance (also the 50-day moving average) on EUR/USD; a break below 1.1070 exposes the next medium-term support at 1.0954/0906.
On the other hand, a daily close above 1.1364, along with a clearance, sees the next medium-term resistances at 1.1488 and 1.1570.
GBP/USD – Bearish reaction at 200-day MA
Fig. 6: GBP/USD medium-term trend as of 6 Nov 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The recent rally of 2.8% seen in GBP/USD from the 14 October 2026 low of 1.3137 has stalled at the key 200-day moving average and the former long-term ascending channel support from the 26 September 2022 low, and staged a bearish reaction on Friday, 6 November 2026 (see Fig. 6).
In addition, the daily MACD Histogram has flashed a bearish divergence, suggesting a potential build-up of medium-term bearish momentum.
Key levels to note include the 1.3500 key medium-term pivotal resistance, with the next medium-term supports coming in at 1.3275 and 1.3160 (the range bottom of a medium-term descending triangle range configuration in place since the 27 January 2026 high).
However, a daily close above 1.3500 sees the next medium-term resistance levels at 1.3658 and 1.3870.
CHF/JPY – Bullish reversal from key support zone
Fig. 7: CHF/JPY medium-term trend as of 6 Nov 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The 5-month decline of 8.2% in the CHF/JPY cross from its current all-time high area of 204.00/204.43, printed on 21 April 2026, stalled on 30 September 2026 at the long-term ascending trendline support, running from the 20 September 2011 low (see Fig. 7).
Recent CHF/JPY prices have staged a bullish breakout above the 50-day moving average, accompanied by a corresponding major bullish breakout in the daily RSI, indicating a potential build-up of medium-term bullish momentum.
Key levels to note include the 189.05/187.60 key long-term pivotal support zone, with the medium-term resistances at 196.60 and 199.00 (also the 200-day moving average).
On the other hand, a break and a daily close below 187.60 expose the next medium-term supports at 184.50 and 181.60.
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to trade.
