With no BLS data, traders look for new ways to gauge the strength of US jobs

The US government shutdown is preventing the Bureau of Labor Statistics from functioning. Where can we gain access to further insights on the US labor market as the shutdown persists?

Private surveys:

• ADP private employment (released monthly)
• Challenger Job-Cut layoffs
• Employment sub-indices from the ISM PMI data
• Bank surveys like those offered by the Bank of America

Public surveys

• New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey
• Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Survey
• Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Explore the details on each release and why it is important for markets.

The US government shutdown, which began at midnight on October 1, remains in a deadlock — many now expect it could at least become the second-longest shutdown in the US history.

Despite six Democratic attempts to pass a funding bill, the Senate has repeatedly rejected proposals to reopen the government.¹

The current shutdown has been ongoing for three weeks already – surpassing 16 of the previous ones (with some lasting only one day, like during the 1980s).

There are, however, faint hopes for a resolution, with growing pressure from agencies, unions, and private-sector partners potentially pushing lawmakers to reach a deal in the coming weeks.²

Prediction markets provide data on the length of the government shutdown. It is estimated at 72% to last more than 30 days, with only a 28% chance priced for regular activity to resume before the end of October.

For now, the impact on economic visibility is clear but not optimal. With most “non-essential” government functions halted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — responsible for the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and weekly jobless claims — is temporarily closed.

Not all data releases are cancelled – BLS recently announced that they will release the Consumer Price Index on October 24, a week after its scheduled release.

So, where can investors fill the data gap and gauge the health of US employment while the shutdown persists?

Private surveys provide valuable insight into the US labor market.

While they typically move markets less than official BLS data, they’re now attracting increased attention amid the government shutdown.

The most widely followed — and most market-moving — is the ADP Private Employment Report, which recently showed a decline of 32,000 jobs.

It is getting more attention, particularly as it provides a seemingly more precise picture (when looking at the huge revisions from BLS data in 2025).

Other indicators help to fill the gap: the Challenger Job-Cut report offers a monthly look at layoffs, while the Gallup Job Creation Index (released quarterly, so not very timely) gives a sentiment-based measure of hiring conditions.

The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs also include employment sub-indexes, offering additional clues about job trends across sectors.

Even private institutions have stepped up their data releases — for instance, a Bank of America survey³ showed slower job growth and rising claims despite steady wage gains, and fund manager Carlyle Group estimated that the US added just 17,000 jobs in September.

While the ADP report remains the benchmark among these alternatives, this period could see new private datasets gain prominence — especially those that prove more consistent or predictive of official labor trends once BLS operations resume.

Public data isn’t entirely absent when assessing the US labor market — a few key Federal Reserve surveys continue operating even during the shutdown.

These surveys offer timely snapshots of employment trends across various districts, providing indirect but valuable clues about hiring and job stability.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey⁴ (the most market-moving) and the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey ask firms whether employment and work hours are rising or falling, giving an early read on hiring momentum in the eastern US.

The Richmond Fed runs manufacturing and service sector surveys, where companies report payroll changes and labor availability.

Further west, the Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District surveys and the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing and Service Outlooks measure shifts in employment and wages through monthly questionnaires sent to local businesses.

Though these regional reports vary in scope, their employment sub-indices tend to move consistently with national labor data, making them valid proxies until the Bureau of Labor Statistics resumes regular publication.

Individual Fed regional presidents tend to mention these studies when they appear, which helps them assess their own decision-making during FOMC meetings.

Except for adding uncertainty regarding future releases, the impact has been small.

American stock indices are all close to unchanged, and the US dollar is up throughout the first half of the month.

Some analysts have mentioned that a longer shutdown could be starting to drag economic activity lower as time goes⁵, with all national parks and many government programs not functioning.

But despite the length of the current shutdown, markets are more concerned about the US-China trade tensions resurfacing.

Although obtaining US labor data remains feasible through alternative public (Federal Reserve) and private sources (ADP, bank surveys, ISM), many market participants eagerly anticipate the reinstatement of essential Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

This situation gains particular importance as the Federal Reserve initiates its rate-cutting cycle, and discussions regarding a deteriorating job market introduce further uncertainty.

The past few nonfarm payrolls have missed expectations and have been revised lower since tariffs might be starting to bite on US employers.

Footnotes:

1.https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/15/government-shutdown-funding-bill-vote-aca.html

2.https://federalnewsnetwork.com/government-shutdown/2025/10/pressure-points-ahead-could-bring-a-quicker-end-to-the-shutdown/

3.https://investinglive.com/news/bofa-data-show-slower-job-growth-and-rising-jobless-claims-despite-steady-wage-gains-20251007/

4.https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview

5.https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown