The era of the "Cupid Tax" is here. Total Valentine's Day spending is projected to reach a record $29.1 billion, driven by the "Liberation Day" tariff policy, multi-year volatility in the global cocoa market, and a surge in precious metal prices.
- Tariffs on diamond-set gold jewelry jumped from 5% to 25%, adding an estimated $1 billion to Valentine's Day spending in 2026 — the largest single component of the "Cupid Tax."
- Due to the "Liberation Day" proclamation, import duties on finished gold jewelry with diamonds increased by 400%, immediately raising the "landed cost" and final retail price.
- The average price for a dozen long-stemmed red roses in the US has reached $93.07 in 2026
Love is in the air, and so, it seems, is inflation – especially when it comes to Valentine's Day. If your wallet feels a little lighter this February 14th, you're not alone. Welcome to the era of the "Cupid Tax."
In early 2026, total Valentine’s Day spending is projected to reach a record $29.1 billion, representing a substantial increase from the $27.5 billion recorded in 2025 and the $25.8 billion in 2024.1
This upward trajectory is due to a convergence of factors such as the “Liberation Day” tariff policy, a multi-year volatility cycle in the global cocoa market, currency exchange rates, and a surge in precious metal prices.
The exchange rate paradox and the US dollar
To understand the 2026 “Cupid Tax”, one must first analyze the disconnect between global currency strength and domestic retail prices. Historically, a strong US dollar acts as a deflationary force on imported goods, as it increases the purchasing power of domestic firms against foreign suppliers.
However, in the current cycle, this advantage has been systematically neutralized by two primary factors: the integration of aggressive import duties and the localized "holiday surge" pricing mechanisms employed by retailers to recoup annual margins. While the US dollar remains robust on international exchange markets, the domestic "landed cost" of romantic staples has risen due to the structural changes in trade policy enacted during the previous year.2
The primary catalyst for this shift was the "Liberation Day" proclamation on April 2, 2025, which introduced a comprehensive two-tiered tariff strategy. This initiative established a 10% universal baseline tariff on nearly all imports excluding Canada and Mexico and a series of "reciprocal" tariffs on approximately 60 nations deemed to have unfair trade practices, with rates as high as 25% or more for key trading partners.3
For the 2026 Valentine’s season, these duties have moved beyond the initial implementation shock and are now fully embedded in retail supply chains. Economic data from late 2025 indicates that the retail pass-through of these tariffs reached approximately 24%, adding roughly 0.76 percentage points to the all-items CPI.4
For highly seasonal, import-dependent goods like roses and chocolate, this pass-through is significantly higher, as manufacturers and florists have exhausted their pre-tariff inventory cushions and are now pricing based on the new replacement costs.
The cost of tariffs on romance
The "Cupid Tax" is easiest to spot when you look at how new import taxes have raised the price of classic Valentine’s Day gifts.
The current administration's trade policy has basically set a new, higher starting price for luxury items brought in from other countries. By the end of February 2026, these extra fees are expected to add a total of $2.5 billion to what Americans spend on Valentine’s Day products compared to previous years.5
| Product category | Pre-2025 base tariff | 2026 Integrated tariff | Estimated seasonal cost increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boxed chocolate confectionery | 5.6% | 25.6% | $400 million |
| Colombian/Ecuadorian roses | 0.0% - 6.5% | 20% - 26.5% | $500 million |
| Finished gold jewelry with diamonds | 5.0% | 25.0% | $1 billion |
| Lingerie and silk apparel | 23.5% | 43.5% | $160 million |
| Imported gourmet food/wine | 0.0% - 10% | 20% -30% | Variable |
Source: https://www.progressivepolicy.org/extra-tariff-costs-for-valentines-day-in-2026-2-5-billion/. Table created by Zain Vawda.
The mechanism of the “Cupid Tax” relies on the concept of "landed cost." When a florist in Miami or a jeweler in New York pays a tariff to Customs and Border Protection, that cost is not merely added to the final price; it is often used as a new baseline for the standard retail markup. For example, if a piece of lingerie sees a tariff increase from 23.5% to 43.5%, the final register price can rise by as much as 46% due to the compounding effect of wholesale markups and inventory risk.6
This structural change explains why a dozen roses, which once served as a manageable romantic gesture, now commands a price point comparable to a week of groceries for some households.
The cocoa market: Volatility and the chocolate luxury pivot
The chocolate/confectionery industry has gone through a wild ride with prices recently, and we are still seeing the effects in stores today.
In April 2024, global cocoa prices reached a record peak of over $12,000 per metric tonne, driven by a catastrophic supply deficit of nearly 500,000 metric tonnes in West Africa. While the market has seen a sharp correction, trading at approximately $4,165 per tonne as of February 1, 2026, this "stabilization" remains nearly double the long-term historical average.7
Retail trends: "Shrinkflation" and the luxury rebranding
In response to the $12,000 cocoa peak, the chocolate industry underwent a massive wave of "shrinkflation" in 2025. Consumers observed that chocolate bars became smaller, or that high-cocoa-content dark chocolate was replaced by products with higher sugar and dairy volumes.8
By early 2026, as raw material costs stabilized, manufacturers like Mondelez and Hershey have indicated that while the need for further price hikes has eased, the reduced product sizes are likely to remain standard.9
| Metric | 2024 peak | Early 2026 | Long-term average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa price per metric tonne | +- $12000 | $4165 | $2100 |
| Global supply balance | 500k tonne deficit | 287k tonne surplus | varies |
| Retail price increase (YoY) | 15% - 35% | 8% - 10% | 2% - 3% |
Source: https://www.convenience.org/Media/Daily/2025/November/3/1-Cocoa-Prices-Expected-Stabilize_Sustainability Table created by Zain Vawda.
In 2025/2026, chocolate prices jumped by 8% to 35% depending on the brand. For the 2026 Valentine’s season, the industry is rebranding chocolate from a mass-market staple to a "premium indulgence." This shift allows manufacturers to maintain high margins even as raw material costs decline, further entrenching the "Cupid Tax" on confectionery gifts.
Roses are red, prices are high
Beyond chocolate, other classic Valentine's Day gifts are feeling the pinch. A dozen roses, once a relatively affordable gesture, can now set you back a considerable sum. Florists, facing increased costs for transportation, labor, and even the blooms themselves (often imported), are passing these expenses onto consumers.
In 2026, the average price for a dozen long-stemmed red roses in the U.S. is $93.07, which is about 3% higher than last year.10 However, prices can be very different depending on where you live. This is mostly because it costs more to ship flowers to some areas than others, and some cities simply have a much higher demand for roses than others.
| State | Average price (dozen roses) | Comparison to national average |
|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | $126.65 | +36% |
| California | $105.50 | +13% |
| New York | $112.00 | +20% |
| Texas | $88.75 | -5% |
| National Average | $93.07 |
Rose Prices by State. Source: FinanceBuzz.
The steakhouse squeeze
Valentine’s Day is a critical date for the restaurant industry, ranking at the top for traffic and reservation volume. Industry reports consistently show that over 20 million Americans dine out on February 14th, with many restaurants generating a significant portion of their annual profits in one evening.11
In 2025, full-service restaurants experienced a 34% jump in overall revenue on Valentine’s Day compared to an average Friday, driven by higher guest spending and increased foot traffic.12
To manage the logistics of a fully booked dining room and to protect margins against rising food costs, most upscale restaurants in 2026 have moved exclusively to fixed price menus. These menus allow kitchens to optimize for "Classic Romance" items like steak and wine, which see sales increases of 99% and 38%, respectively, on February 14th.13
The "Cupid Tax" in the dining sector is expressed through the "Valentine’s Premium." A typical three-course prix-fixe menu in 2026 might cost $85–$150 per person, nearly double the average check size at the same establishment on a non-holiday evening.
This pricing reflects not just the cost of ingredients, but the high demand for "romantic ambiance," which many consumers are willing to pay a premium for as a visible expression of thoughtfulness.14
Jewelry and luxury goods: The high cost of the "Bling"
The surge in metal prices between early 2025 and February 2026 has fundamentally changed the cost of Valentine’s Day jewelry. While the market saw a sharp "flash crash" in the first few days of February 2026 due to changes at the Federal Reserve, the overall cost of raw materials remains significantly higher than it was a year ago.
Spot Gold and silver price (per ounce) increased since February 2025. Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Besides the significant increase in the price of raw materials (gold and silver), "Cupid Tax" is perhaps most burdensome in this category due to the 20% reciprocal tariff on finished gold and diamond pieces.15
As a result of this, the 2026 jewelry market is experiencing a ‘great divide’. High-net-worth individuals continue to drive demand for natural diamonds and high-carat gold, largely unfazed by the impact of tariffs.16
However, middle-income consumers are increasingly pivoting toward lab-grown diamonds and sterling silver "designer" pieces (still cheaper than gold) to maintain the tradition of gifting while avoiding the steepest price hikes.17
Potential ways to navigate the changes in the romantic economy
Recent data in the lead up to the 2026 Valentine’s period, along with new consumer surveys, highlights several patterns that provide insights into the evolution of the romantic economy.
Earlier shopping cycles: To mitigate the risk of tariff-driven price hikes and inventory shortages, over 87% of shoppers now plan to start their holiday shopping significantly earlier. This has forced retailers to move their "peak" seasons forward, leading to a "holiday creep" that begins immediately after the New Year.
Supply chain rebalancing: The tariff pressure on Chinese and European imports is encouraging brands in the apparel and jewelry sectors to reshore production or seek "friend-shoring" partners in Latin America and Vietnam.19
The rise of the AI shopper: In 2026, consumers are increasingly using AI-driven comparison tools to find the best value across florists and restaurants. This "technological arbitrage" is putting pressure on retailers to justify their premium pricing through improved service or unique "limited-edition" offerings, which 68% of couples say still influence their choices.20
Resilience of premium brands: Despite the "Cupid Tax," brands with strong market positioning and clear value propositions are maintaining their margins. Consumers are becoming more selective, opting for one high-quality, memorable gift or experience rather than several lower-quality items.21
To sum up
The chances are high that 2026 is going to see a significant shift in consumer psychology. A survey of 3,004 couples reveals that 54% believe inflation has fundamentally changed how they plan the holiday.22
Spending is expected to remain resilient, estimated at $29.1 billion however the manner in which the funds are spent is becoming increasingly tactical in nature.
This paints an interesting picture, even though costs are rising, folks still want to celebrate; they are just being more careful with their budgets and picking options they can afford.
Footnotes:
1- https://thursd.com/articles/valentines-day-sharing-the-love-in-record-numbers
3- https://www.flocksafety.com/blog/how-tariffs-may-impact-supply-chains-security
4- https://www.pricinglab.org/files/TrackingTariffs_Cavallo_Llamas_Vazquez.pdf
5- https://www.progressivepolicy.org/extra-tariff-costs-for-valentines-day-in-2026-2-5-billion/
6- https://www.progressivepolicy.org/extra-tariff-costs-for-valentines-day-in-2026-2-5-billion/
7- https://www.newsghana.com.gh/global-cocoa-market-correction-creates-pressure-for-ghana/
8- https://www.newsghana.com.gh/global-cocoa-market-correction-creates-pressure-for-ghana/
10- https://financebuzz.com/cost-of-dozen-roses-each-state
12- https://pos.toasttab.com/blog/data/valentines-day-trends-insights
13- https://pos.toasttab.com/blog/data/valentines-day-trends-insights
14- https://party.alibaba.com/valentine/is-valentines-day-the-busiest-day-for-restaurants
15- https://www.progressivepolicy.org/extra-tariff-costs-for-valentines-day-in-2026-2-5-billion/
19- https://tecex.com/us-tariffs-2025-2026/
21- https://thursd.com/articles/valentines-day-sharing-the-love-in-record-numbers
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
