Five FX pairs you should be watching in November 2025 and why

• The Fed’s easing cycle, and the pace at which it will happen, remains one of the most dominant themes this November
• Risk appetite is currently at the mercy of ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as an ongoing government shutdown

With a third of Q4 already complete, the end of the year is coming around as quickly as ever. To continue the series from last month, let’s discuss the five currency pairs to have on your watchlist this November.

Somewhat predictably, the overriding macro theme within EUR/USD markets at the moment is interest rates, with the ECB and Federal Reserve becoming increasingly divergent in policy in recent months.

Writing after the Federal Reserve’s October decision, the Federal Reserve agreed to cut rates by 25 basis points in line with expectations, while the ECB maintained rates, meeting consensus.

Unlike the Federal Reserve, however, the ECB is expected to hold rates steady³ amid persistent eurozone inflation, which helps highlight the differences in monetary policy stance between the two central banks.

While the ECB is many cuts ahead of the Federal Reserve this calendar year, a narrowing of the interest rate differential would typically be dollar-negative and euro-positive, unless either central bank is forced to cut from a position of pure economic panic, as opposed to supporting the labor market.

When trading EUR/USD in November, traders should consider the following:

1. Assuming the government shutdown concludes, how do nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and PCE data support the notion of further Fed rate cuts in December?
2. With inflation proving sticky in the Eurozone, is it moving further away from, or closer to, the target of 2%? Otherwise, how do previously weak GDP numbers support the ECB’s ‘on-hold’ stance?

As a short aside, if the government shutdown is to continue into November, and we miss important data releases as we have in October, the Fed will continue to be in a difficult position, hoping to avoid an economic slowdown while simultaneously ‘flying blind’ data-wise.

Otherwise, when trading EUR/USD in November 2025, traders should also pay attention to developments between the US and China on trade, with any suggestion of co-operation between the two nations likely to bode well for dollar pricing.

On the technical side, EUR/USD is currently in a period of consolidation, up over 12% year-to-date, driven by dollar weakness.

Recently, price has broken down below the 20, 50, and 100-period SMAs, suggesting short-term downside is likely. If price falls and closes below previous lows of around 1.1500, this could indicate the start of a downtrend and the end of the current consolidation.

Being the clearest cut example of monetary policy divergence amongst the G10, USD/JPY traders are in for an interesting month in November.

While the Fed, like most others, is in an active easing cycle, the Bank of Japan remains on a tightening path, which goes double when considering how the new leadership of Sanae Takaichi, who by all accounts, is in favour loose monetary policy otherwise known as ‘Abenomics’, taking its name from former Prime Minister and personal mentor of Takaichi, Shinzo Abe.

With the proof in the metaphorical pudding being rising Japanese equity value, the stances of both banks are becoming increasingly divergent, offering an interesting dynamic to traders:

• If the Federal Reserve is to become more dovish, and the Bank of Japan more hawkish, and therefore increasingly divergent, we can expect USD/JPY to weaken, all other variables remaining the same

It’s worth highlighting that this dynamic, which involves divergence in monetary policy, is virtually exclusive to USD/JPY and similar pairs, such as GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY, and others.

Read more: How to Trade USD/JPY: 5 Tips for your Trading

Coupled with new leadership in Japan and shifting perceptions of the yen within the global FX landscape, USD/JPY remains one of the most fundamentally unique pairs available to trade currently and is one to watch throughout November 2025.

While the BoJ decided to maintain rates at 0.5% in their October meeting, it’s fair to say that a move away from perceptions of the yen as a carry trade currency is a slow process.

Naturally, and albeit diverging, the Federal Reserve still offers an interest rate that is many times higher on each dollar compared to the Bank of Japan, and by extension, the yen.

Currently, price remains well-above all key moving averages, suggesting a sustained move to the upside looks set to continue for USD/JPY, unless fundamentals significantly change.

Of course, this wouldn’t be an installment of ‘pairs to watch’ without discussing risk flows at least once.

This time around, this comes by way of AUD/USD, with the Australian dollar not only being a typical ‘risk-on’ currency, but also the dollar being a ‘safe-haven’ amongst its currency peers.

This goes double when considering the Australian economy’s exposure to China, and how trade tensions with the US are adding to risk aversion, creating a scenario where the Australian dollar is likely to come under some selling pressure:

• If trade tensions between the US and China worsen, not only will this weigh negatively on AUD due to waning risk appetite, but it will also threaten the Chinese economy, which, as a key trade partner of Australia, will further bearish tailwinds

As such, and with trade negotiations between the two nations ongoing, AUD/USD is certainly one to keep at least half an eye on throughout November.

With the RBA likely to keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, owing to sticky domestic inflation, this somewhat removes one side of the monetary policy equation for AUD/USD, allowing traders to focus better on risk dynamics instead.

Boasting a respectable gain of 5.68% year-to-date, mainly on the back of a weakening dollar, we can expect AUD/USD to act as a barometer of broader market risk trends in November.

Trading just over 0.65000 at the time of writing, price remains in a modest uptrend, with a move above 0.66526 possibly suggesting further upside to come.

In the other direction, a close below structure at ~0.64848 could offer a potential selling opportunity.

With crude oil remaining the Canadian’s largest export by some margin¹, USD/CAD traders are currently met with one burning question: Will historically low crude pricing, or a dovish Federal Reserve, be the primary catalyst for USD/CAD movement in November?

Put simply, the price of crude oil and the Canadian dollar have long been observed to be positively correlated, meaning that if the price of crude oil increases, so does the CAD, and vice versa.

In the case of the Federal Reserve, a more dovish Fed would typically lead to lower interest rates, which would weigh negatively on the dollar, and vice versa if seen to become more hawkish in stance.

The $1,000,000 question is, which of these themes will be more dominant in November, considering WTI pricing currently sits just over $60, having traded in excess of $120 per barrel three short years ago.

This is especially relevant towards the end of the year, including November, considering the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil supply to be surplus to demand in 2025².

Otherwise, and especially considering Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish commentary after the recent rate cut, a trader with a good understanding of both macroeconomic themes might be able to identify a USD/CAD trading opportunity in November that others cannot.

More recently, and owing to the aforementioned hawkish Fed and low crude pricing, USD/CAD has predictably rallied.

Now trading at ~1.40545, USD/CAD remains one of the few pairs where the American dollar has gained value over the other in 2025, which is perhaps more of a reflection on the Canadian dollar than anything else.

With price action forming a hammer candlestick on the daily chart last week, traders would do well to consider how further Fed commentary will affect market rate cut expectations, while also keeping an eye on crude pricing.

While public finances in both the United States and the United Kingdom are somewhat questionable at best, in the case of the UK, November will see the release of the long-awaited budget, courtesy of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.

While taxes are all but guaranteed to be raised in some capacity, the UK simultaneously holds the unfortunate distinction of having the highest inflation in the G7, alongside poor GDP growth and rising unemployment.

The budget will attempt to plug a multibillion-pound hole⁴ between government spending and tax receipts, with the current leadership stuck between a rock and a hard place, having to make up a substantial shortfall while also maintaining campaign pledges not to raise taxes on working people or increase VAT.

Put simply, the fiscal health of the UK will be under much scrutiny in the month of November, which is likely to reflect poorly on the UK economy as a whole.

Tying this back to GBP/USD, markets have already started to vote with their feet, abandoning sterling in favour of other stores of wealth, which has hurt GBP pricing.

Otherwise, and while most are familiar with the Federal Reserve’s stance by now, the Bank of England is due to vote on monetary policy early in November, which by all accounts will be a tough decision:

• Rising unemployment, now at 4.8%, at its highest level since July 2021
• Poor GDP growth, with recent estimates for Q2 at a measly 0.3%
• Stubborn inflation, at 3.8% YoY in September and, crucially, almost double the 2.0% target

While poor labour data and poor GDP growth would typically support the notion of cutting rates, with inflation at almost twice its target, Governor Andrew Bailey will have a hard time justifying this, unless inflationary pressures are expected to subside naturally.

Read more: Factors Shaping Global Forex Markets in the 2020s

While, in a vacuum, we can expect higher interest rates to be positive for sterling, if rates are maintained higher owing to fears of so-called stagflation, this might cause a further de-ranking of the pound compared to its currency peers.

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Footnotes

¹https://comtradeplus.un.org/TradeFlow

²https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2025

³https://ecb-watch.eu/

⁴https://obr.uk/download/public-finances-databank-october-2025/?tmstv=1762332513