Explore the top five FX pairs to watch in January 2026, with key technical breakout levels on EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/CNH.
Key takeaways
- The US dollar ended 2025 about 10% weaker after a sharp H1 sell-off driven by “US debasement” fears, followed by a brief Q3 rebound on “US exceptionalism,” before settling into consolidation as the Fed turned mildly dovish.
- EUR/USD and AUD/USD are still trading above their respective 200-day moving averages
.Both USD/CHF and USD/CNH are trading below their respective 200-day moving averages. - NZD/USD underperforms AUD, as it has not broken above its 200-day moving average since 24 September 2025.
Five FX pairs you should be watching in January 2026 and why
2025 is almost over, and the main arc for the FX market in 2025 has been defined by a tug of war between “US exceptionalism” and “US debasement”, with US fiscal fears and erratic trade policy driving early US dollar weakness, while Fed-global monetary policy divergence intermittently revived US dollar strength in Q3 2025.
The US dollar fell sharply in H1 2025 (-11%), rebounded briefly on renewed US exceptionalism, then settled into a consolidation phase, ending the year down around 10% as the Fed shifted to a more balanced, mildly dovish stance (see Fig. 1 & Fig. 2).
Fig. 1: Year-to-date performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Fig. 2: US Dollar Index long-term secular trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Here are the five currency pairs to keep on your radar to kickstart the new year:
EUR/USD: Bullish consolidation, watch the 1.1910 resistance
Fig. 3: EUR/USD medium-term & major trends as of 31 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Since its 1 August 2025 low of 1.1392, the EUR/USD is oscillating inside a medium-term “Ascending Triangle” range configuration, with the range resistance at 1.1910 within a major uptrend phase in place since the 13 January 2025 low of 1.0178 (see Fig. 3).
The medium-term resistances for the EUR/USD stand at 1.1910 and 1.2130/1.2260.
Medium-term supports are at 1.1470/1.1400, 1.1230, and 1.1050.
USD/CHF: A potential bearish breakdown looms, watch 0.7855 support
Fig. 4: USD/CHF medium-term & major trends as of 31 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The US dollar was the weakest against the Swiss franc (CHF) in 2025 among the major currencies, as the greenback tumbled by 12.85% against the CHF as of 29 December 2025.
Since 1 July 2025, USD/CHF has been trading sideways with a range support at 0.7855 (see Fig. 4).
In addition, the yield spread between the 2-year US Treasury note and the 2-year Swiss government bond has staged a major bearish breakdown below a former support of 3.60% that was previously in place since 10 March 2025.
The medium-term resistances for the USD/CHF stand at 0.8100, 0.8170, 0.8250, and 0.8350.
AUD/USD: Major bullish breakout
Fig. 5: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 31 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AUD/USD has staged a major bullish breakout on 5 December 2025 from its former long-term secular descending trendline that capped previous rallies since the 25 February 2021 high (see Fig. 5).
The price action of the AUD/USD pulled back on 11 December 2025 and retested on the former long-term secular descending trendline on 17 December 2025 before a bullish reversal occurred to see “higher highs” next.
The daily MACD trend indicator has continued to trend steadily upwards above its zero centreline since 2 December 2025.
The medium-term resistances of AUD/USD stand at 0.6760/0.6800 and 0.6940.
NZD/USD: Bearish reaction at 200-day moving average
Fig. 6: NZD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 31 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Despite a recent rally of 4.85% from its 21 November 2025 low of 0.5580 to the 24 December 2025 high of 0.5853, the NZD/USD is much weaker than its antipodean peer, the AUD/USD, from a technical analysis perspective.
The NZD/USD is still oscillating within a medium-term descending channel in place since its 1 July 2025 high of 0.6120 and below its 200-day moving average since 24 September 2025 (see Fig. 6).
Since 24 December 2025, the NZD/USD has shaped a bearish reaction of -1.45% after a retest close to its 200-day moving average and the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel.
The daily RSI momentum indicator has flashed out a bearish divergence condition on 26 December 2025. The medium-term supports for the NZD/USD are at 0.5735, 0.5680, and 0.5580.
In addition, the medium-term resistances stand at 0.5855, 0.6000, and 0.6060.
USD/CNH: Start of a potential major downtrend phase
Fig. 7: USD/CNH medium-term & major trends as of 31 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
China’s offshore yuan (CNH) has continued to strengthen further against the US dollar on Wednesday, 31 December, the last trading day of 2025, after it breached below the important psychological 7-per-dollar mark for the first time since September 2024 on Tuesday, 30 December, and is on track for its largest annual gain of 4.8% against the greenback since 2020.
The medium-term downtrend phase of the USD/CNH remains intact since its 8 April 2025 high of 7.4294. A break with a daily close below the key 26 September 2024 swing low of 6.9710 may transit into a major downtrend phase for the USD/CNH to expose the next medium-term supports of 6.8960 and 6.8290 (see Fig. 7).
On the other hand, a clearance above the 7.0850 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also the 50-day moving average) invalidates the bearish tone for a potential corrective rebound towards the next resistance at 7.1525 (also the 200-day moving average).
This article is for general information purposes only, not to be considered a recommendation or financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell instruments.
Opinions are the authors; not necessarily those of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors.
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