Five key currency pairs to keep on your radar in October 2025 and why

Q3 is over, and we are now approaching the tail end of 2025. Here are the five currency pairs to have on your radar for October.

However, before we delve into these featured currency pairs and their respective technical charts, let me share a key, overarching macro theme that might potentially have a significant impact on the FX market.

October is set to be another intriguing month for FX markets as a host of Central Bank decisions feature prominently.

The Federal Reserve in the US just cut the rate by 25 bps in September, marking the first rate cut of 2025. According to the latest data from LSEG, markets are pricing in around 41 bps of rate cuts through December 2025.

A recent uptick in US data has seen this number improve from around the 50 bps mark, and the number will likely remain sensitive to US data ahead of the October meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

The interest around the Federal Reserve on its own is of interest, but the real story is how these expectations stack up against Central Banking peers.

Looking across the board, in October we have the Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of Japan (BoJ), European Central Bank (ECB) as well as the RBNZ rate decisions. According to the latest LSEG data, none of these Central Banks are expected to cut rates as much for the remainder of 2025 with most having already cut rates this year.

This leaves the prospect of rate differentials factoring into currency price movements for the remainder of 2025.

Rate differentials, or Interest Rate Differentials (IRD), are simply the difference between the benchmark interest rates set by the central banks of two different countries. This difference is one of the most fundamental drivers of currency movements in the foreign exchange (forex) market.

Currency movements are often driven less by the current IRD and more by expectations of future IRD changes.

In theory, if the market expects one central bank to raise rates while the other holds steady, the currency expected to have the higher rate will often appreciate immediately, well before the rate hike even occurs. Forex markets are always forward-looking.

Now, although we have tariffs and a host of geopolitical uncertainty to consider, October FX movements could be driven by interest rate differentials coming to the fore and should be considered when looking at the charts.

EUR/USD has been in a period of consolidation following the September Federal Reserve meeting.

EUR/USD is supported by the medium-term ascending trendline, which continues to hold firm. Immediate resistance may be found at the swing high printed on September 24 around the 1.18150 handle before the YTD high at 1.19188 comes into focus.

The 1.2000 psychological level lies beyond that and has not been tested since June 2021.

Looking at the downside and the ascending trendline will be the first point of interest with a daily candle close below opening up a possible retest of the 1.14500 pivot level.

USD/JPY has largely been driven by the US dollar over the last few months.

Looking at the chart, USD/JPY is resting just above a host of key support levels with the 50, 100 and 200-day MAs all resting just below the current price.

Below that is the ascending trendline, which is also serving as another form of support.

Similar to EUR/USD, if the ascending trendline holds firm, then further upside remains possible.

However, acceptance above the 150.00 handle is needed if the rally higher is to continue.

One of the reasons holding USD/JPY back is the growing expectations of a rate hike from the BoJ.

That coupled with a weak US dollar over the last few months have kept USD/JPY gains in check.

A move to the downside will need to clear a host of hurdles, but a trendline break could facilitate a longer-term move toward the psychological 140.00 level.

USD/CHF is at an interesting place, having printed a YTD low at around 0.7828, a price last seen during the 2015 spike and intervention by the SNB.

This was surprising given that the SNB has cut rates 50 bps this year, while the Fed has only started. However, persistent US dollar weakness was behind the move and developments around the US dollar remain key to USD/CHF price moves.

Looking at the daily chart, USD/CHF has printed higher highs and higher lows, staircasing its way toward the psychological 80.00 handle.

This move came about after bottoming out on September 17, the day of the Fed meeting.

The US dollar has risen since the Fed meeting and whether or not the rally continues, will likely have a major impact on where USD/CHF is headed next.

There has been strong correlation between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and USD/CHF in 2025. Look at the chart below, and the two instruments' movements are mirror images of one another.

Now, looking at the technical picture for USD/CHF, bulls remain in control if the current trend of higher highs and higher lows holds.

A daily candle close below the swing low at 0.7900 could lead to a change in structure and lead USD/CHF to revisit the YTD low.

If the bullish move is to continue, a daily candle close above the 0.8000 level and the 50-day MA is needed.

Beyond that, resistance is provided by the 100 and 200-day MAs which rests at 0.8067 and 0.8426 respectively.

The Australian dollar has put in gains against the US dollar since bottoming out in early April around the 0.5914 handle.

A v-shaped recovery ensued which propelled AUD/USD to above the 0.6350 before entering a period of consolidation.

The pair has edged higher since then to trade above the psychological 0.6500 handle. The Australian dollar has been a beneficiary of the commodity rally and with the US dollar facing rate cuts in Q4 2025, this could potentially aid the Australian dollar to further its advance.

At present, price is holding above a key confluence area, which rests between the 0.6500 and 0.6540 handles.

If the move higher continues, immediate resistance rests at 0.6684 before the 0.6750 handle comes into focus.

If AUD/USD is able to break below and record a daily candle close below the 0.6500 handle, support is provided by the 200-day MA, which rests at 0.6406 handle.

GBP/USD is another interesting pair to pay attention to heading into October.

Cable has retreated since the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17 thanks to a combination of a weaker US dollar and UK fiscal pressures.

Cable has now printed what appears to be a double bottom pattern on the daily timeframe.

If we drop to the four-hour chart, there is a falling wedge pattern which has been broken as well.

Immediate resistance for GBP/USD is provided by the swing highs at 1.3450, 1.3520 and 1.3639 respectively. A move higher may face stern resistance around the 1.3500 handle as we have the 100 and 200-day MAs, which rest at 1.3520 and 1.3502 respectively.

Looking at the downside, support rests at 1.3378 (multi-month support/resistance) before the 1.3333 and the 1.3250 handles come into focus.