Crypto market analysis: One year of Trump 2.0

There’s no denying that Trump’s first year back in office has been eventful for global markets, with digital assets proving no exception. While a multitude of presidential campaign pledges were expected to benefit cryptocurrency markets, in many ways, 2025 wasn’t as smooth sailing as some predicted.

While the initial ‘Trump Trade’ proved positive for crypto in the first half of the year, especially amid promises of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a litany of regulatory framework changes, yearly performance has been less convincing, with many well-known cryptocurrencies ultimately losing value year over year.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/broker/OANDA/ , 02/04/2026.

With initial excitement priced in by mid-year, a somewhat rangebound crypto market saw the start of a bearish move in early November, with bitcoin falling below the key psychological level of $100,000 for the first time in six months, a price point which the coin is yet to recapture.

As the market enters 2026, the narrative now shifts from simple adoption to deeper, more institutional integration, with eyes on the ‘Crypto 2.0’ legislative push, and further progress towards a digital currency monetary system for both commercial and government central banks.

Despite reaching a historic peak of $126,306 in October, Bitcoin was down -18.43%, trading around $89,411 by January 20th 2026, a year since Trump’s inauguration. While institutional ETF inflows from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity provided strong underlying support, a flare-up in US-China trade tensions culminating in a 100% tariff on Chinese imports to the US would see a continued move away from risk assets towards more traditional stores of wealth like gold, undoing all gains made earlier in the year.

While also included in government reserve plans, Ethereum would struggle to keep pace with Bitcoin for much of 2025, down -13.96% at ~$2,990. Only being approved by the SEC in July 2024, spot ETFs would provide some stability for Ethereum in 2025, but the coin would otherwise face increased competition from the likes of Solana on the technical front, while simultaneously losing out to Bitcoin not only in terms of status as world number #1, but also in perceived utility as a store of wealth.

Pegged 1:1 to the spot value of precious metal gold, it is no surprise that PAX Gold is amongst some of the best-performing large-cap cryptocurrencies of the year, up +79.98% to $4,786, rising in tandem with gold bullion price. By design, the same risk-off sentiment that would otherwise hurt crypto pricing would only benefit ‘stablecoins’ like PAX Gold throughout 2025, with aggressive tariff policies synonymous with the Trump campaign a primary tailwind.

Also gaining value in 2025 was Bitcoin Cash, which rose by 31.43% to around $572. While news of the strategic reserve, similar to government-held gold and petroleum reserves, would predictably support a coin closely related to the world's number #1 cryptocurrency, the rise in BTC's value, contrary to market trends, is an interesting development. Created as a ‘fork’ of Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash was designed to better compete with traditional transaction systems like PayPal and Visa, and its price increase last year continues to build a case for the utility of cryptocurrencies beyond just a store of value.

Among the first altcoins to see widespread adoption, Litecoin traded rangebound for much of last year, ultimately posting a -51.09% decline. While, at least in some respects, the SEC’s Crypto 2.0 task force has favoured established proof-of-work coins in recent memory, Litecoin’s historic role in the crypto space fails to capture the attention of those looking for a more speculative form of investment, with last year no exception.

Otherwise, Chainlink lost north of 40% in 2025, despite its unique technological position. While security standards like CCIP remain a feather in the cap of the token, last year saw many altcoins lose significant value, including Chainlink.

Further on altcoins, Aave and Uniswap were amongst the worst-performing semi-large-cap cryptocurrencies of last year, down 51.13% and 64.83%, respectively. While the perceived ‘soft touch’ regulatory environment was cause for optimism earlier in the year, both Aave and Uniswap were hit particularly hard by the end-of-year sell-off, with altcoins at the forefront of so-called risk assets.

Once somewhat of a crypto sceptic, with an apparent preference for the US dollar, Trump’s 2024 election campaign pledges to make the United States of America the ‘crypto capital’ of the planet were understandably viewed as a massive win for the industry, both from a regulatory and legitimacy standpoint.

Coupled with the idea that lower interest rates were coming, there was ample reason for crypto markets to rally in 2025. This optimism, however, not only became priced in but was also overshadowed by other macroeconomic forces that later in the year boosted market uncertainty, hurting crypto prices.

While sands are shifting on how the mainstream views crypto, most still perceive it as a speculative asset class that offers the potential for high rewards, though not without risk. As a result, cryptocurrencies remain at the forefront of risk assets and are often among the first to be liquidated in times of economic uncertainty.

Looking ahead to 2026, the key drivers remain unchanged, with the potential for lower US interest rates and the future of regulation still in focus.

The former goes double when considering Jerome Powell’s tenure as chair of the Federal Reserve, which is due to come to an end in 2026, with Trump looking to suggest a replacement perhaps more sympathetic to Trump’s vocal demands for lower interest rates¹.

As such, monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is likely to be as closely watched as ever in 2026, especially for digital assets, which have, in some capacity, historically benefited from lower interest rates, with the US dollar becoming comparatively less attractive to hold and borrowing costs are reduced.

As for regulation, the debate has shifted considerably from this time last year. Previous discussions over whether Bitcoin is a commodity have now given way to discussions of how the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will share oversight duties, with Bitcoin categorised as a ‘digital commodity’ in the United States some years ago.

It’s worth noting, however, that while President Trump and other public figures like Elon Musk have significantly raised the profile of cryptocurrency worldwide, regulatory changes are not exclusive to the United States.

Much like their North American counterpart, the narrative has shifted from "if" these assets should be regulated to "how" they can be integrated into the existing financial fabric, especially in Europe, with the full implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation in early 2026.

With recent years showing unprecedented progress in adoption, legitimacy, and interest in cryptocurrency markets, 2026 presents an interesting opportunity for digital assets.

Footnotes:

1- https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-may-be-down-one-candidate-head-fed-2026-01-21/