North American weekly update: A Pakistani-brokered US-Iran ceasefire has been accepted by both sides on Tuesday evening, late session. Markets haven’t looked back since, erasing a large part of their prior war movements.
The Market had been preparing for the possibility of a less intense conflict in the region following the commencement of US-Iran talks on March 23rd. Communications in wartime is a foggy terrain, as enemies attempt to deceive each other and reassure their citizens, but the reality is often far less clear.
As the legendary portfolio manager Michael Burry said yesterday (post deleted), by issuing threats of "the end of a civilization"1 and other big words, the US president was preparing the terrain for a massive TACO.
When markets rally into the close as the situation gradually clears, it signals that someone likely knows something (as Tuesday’s late session explosion showed).
Dow Jones 1H Chart. April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Luckily, it is a very positive factor for the world, which is positively affecting Markets; the conflict is officially stopping for at least two weeks2 and could lead to a longer-term peace prospect if both sides respect their commitments.
As always in ceasefire deals, some points will remain contentious, and the situation is still a bit unclear. If we were to listen to President Trump3, most of the points from the 15-point draft4 have been accepted.
It could be wise to pay close attention to the details to know more about whether the ceasefire is to be breached.5
In any case, the asset that was the first and the most affected by the news is Crude Oil, naturally, with a significant 20% tumble that came right after the news and keeps extending.
The commodity is now trading below $95 a barrel and looks to continue correcting (at least hopefully). After 6 weeks of severely restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, many Asian and European countries faced oil shortages and droughts.
WTI Oil 4H chart, April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
North American markets have now erased 28 days of losses. The issue is that from now on, expectations for progress and calm might be elevated.
Nasdaq is leading US indexes with a +3% extension from its Tuesday close, and its peers are not shy of similar performances.
With the US dollar getting battered by lower Crude prices and softer Market sentiment, traders are now looking to see if tensions properly abate during the two-week truce.
Intraday technical levels for the USD/CAD
USD/CAD 4H chart, April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Despite its relative weakness against FX majors, the Loonie is at least outperforming the US dollar in the recent market turn.
Forming a double top at the extremes of its 1.3550 - 1.3950 large range, the North-American pair is testing the lower bound of its upward channel.
Levels of interest for USD/CAD:
Resistance levels
- 4H 50-period MA (1.39)
- 1.39 to 1.3925 support turned resistance
- 1.3950 mini-resistance (range highs and recent top)
- 1.40 major resistance
Support levels
- 1.3850 momentum pivot
- 1.38 mini-support +/- 150 pips
- 1.3750 pivotal support
- 1.3550 main 2025 support (range lows)
US dollar mid-week performance vs major currencies
USD vs other majors since last Monday, April 8, 2026 - Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US and Canada economic calendar for the rest of the week
US and Canadian data by next Wednesday, April 15th, 2026. Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high-risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
