Weekly update: US-Iran uncertainty can’t restrain market participants

This week in trading has been a rollercoaster. While Stock Markets themselves did not react much, sentiment went back and forth, but traders now seem increasingly unfazed by rumors and only react to larger-scale news.

The most important theme, as always since the end of February, is the Middle East conflict, which has now completed its second week of truce.

While the narrative grew very passive-aggressive, particularly on the divided Iranian side¹, Wall Street kept its optimism and remains completely hypnotized by President Trump's persistent attempts at a deal.

Stock Benchmarks have officially broken all-time highs in 3 consecutive sessions last week.

We are now past the 1-year anniversary of Liberation Day, and the stock markets are up about 50% since then.

This is close to 5 years of growth in a bit more than 365 days, and it’s clearly not been an easy path. But Equity Bulls are hungry and seemingly undefeated.

Dips are bought, negative news is followed up by even more positive news, and nothing really ever happens.

With Donald Trump in power, the stock markets are in good hands, and they know they can rely on a few TACO's to remain full.

The most recent one happened yesterday, as bombs and no Ceasefire extension were promised, but the President announced one about 4 hours before the deadline.²

Iran just announced that it would send a delegation only if it serves Iran's best interests. From what it seems, internal political turmoil in the Islamic regime still points to contentious looks on peace talks. In any case, a clear answer will have to be seen.³

This is a best-case scenario for Markets and geopolitics, but both the Dollar and WTI Crude haven't shown as much progress. After falling below $85 last Friday, more realistic traders realized that Hormuz was still in a deadlock and pushed the commodity back higher, now established around $90.

Iran just attacked a third tanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz under US Blockade, and this only shows that both sides are still far from permissive.⁴

While Oil is moving on its own geopolitical dynamics, the US dollar might have caught its own bid after the upcoming Senate hearing for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

The hearing triggered a notable market pullback as he signaled structural shifts for the Federal Reserve.⁵

Rejecting recent policy complacency, Warsh advocated dropping forward guidance, heavily reducing the balance sheet, and establishing a new inflation framework. While aggressively asserting Fed independence, he notably dodged tough questions from Senator Warren regarding potential disagreements with the President and his biases.⁶

In terms of pure economic data, the only two interesting reports this week have been the Canadian CPI, which came in at a measly 2.4% (but a +0.9% m/m increase), and the Bank of Canada's rate decision, which left rates unchanged.⁷

On the other hand, the US just delivered a strong Retail sales Report (up 1.7% m/m), which only continues the series of rebounding American data.⁸

USD/CAD is still holding its bear channel, but the action is now stalling at the 1.3630 - 1.3660 support as traders await further FX developments.

Resistance levels

• 1.3750 momentum pivot
• 1.38 mini-resistance +/- 150 pip
• 1.3850 resistance
• 1.39 to 1.3925 support turned resistance

Support levels

• 1.3630 to 1.3660 key support
• 1.3550 main 2025 support (range lows)
• 1.35 key psychological support

Footnotes:

1 - https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604234667

2-https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/trump-iran-war-ceasefire.html

3 - https://x.com/Osint613/status/2046904973514899913

4 - https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cx297218m9vt

5 - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8dl3ez4mpno

6 - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/kevin-warsh-inflation-trend-pce-trump.html

7 - https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/march-2026-inflation-rate-9.7170077#:~:text=Statistics%20Canada%20says%20the%20annual,the%20largest%20increase%20on%20record.&text=Summer%20gas%20is%20here

8 - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-retail-sales-surge-march-higher-gasoline-prices-2026-04-21/