North American weekly update: US-Iran tensions reportedly continue, with President Trump further easing his tone regarding the approaching end to the conflict. Dive into the US dollar, North American market performance, USD/CAD, and more.
The change in narrative compared to the disastrous end of last week was so swift that it could be reasonable to wonder if this isn't just an April's joke – although this one would be a boon to global investors’ portfolios.
After ~10% drops across North American Indexes, pessimism had begun to dampen the mood severely1 – participants were starting to price in an endless conflict, akin to Afghanistan or Iraq, which gave a pretty nasty outlook for already elevated Oil prices2.
WTI Crude is easing back towards $100 from $105 at the start of the week, little progress but better than what previous rises were pointing to, as uncertainty is shunned further. Significant diplomatic progress will still be needed to push for a real correction in the commodity.
WTI Oil 4H chart, April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Markets will still be looking at whether tankers can really flow through Hormuz and if global Oil prices can take a consistent turn to the downside.
Russia did indicate that Iran was moving to allow more tankers through Hormuz, but Markets won't be as positive if it's only for Iranian allies.3
At least, Stock Market bulls haven’t wasted the opportunity, pushing all major US Indexes to a swift rebound in early week trading, with the move only reverting the past week’s tumble. To generate a persistent move higher, however, traders will have to see a proper resolution.
The buying has been a bit more erratic as the week continues, even with Indexes generally continuing higher, due to contradicting headlines from Tehran indicating that "the Strait of Hormuz won't be reopened based on Trump's displays"4, which marks how cloudy the picture still really is.
Apart from Iran, traders continue to receive decent US economic data, with beats in Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs contrasting Tuesday's lower Job Openings data.
We are now seeing the impact of the conflict on data, and this should continue to affect upcoming releases5, so it will be interesting to see whether the economy is really getting sapped by energy prices or if it is really the well-oiled tank it has been in recent years.
Intraday technical levels for the USD/CAD
USD/CAD 4H chart, April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
USD/CAD has now reached the upper bound of its 1.3550 to 1.3950 large range, rejecting resistance but facing mixed fundamentals ahead, with corrections in WTI affecting negatively both currencies.6
Levels of interest for USD/CAD:
Resistance levels
- 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance
- 1.3950 mini-resistance (range highs and recent top)
- 1.40 Major resistance
Support Levels
- 1.3850 Momentum pivot
- 1.38 Mini-support +/- 150 pips
- 1.3750 Pivotal support
- 1.3550 Main 2025 support (range lows)
US dollar mid-week performance vs major currencies
USD vs other majors since last Wednesday, April 1, 2026 - Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The US dollar profited from its end-of-week resilience, but with the turn in narrative and the double top in the Dollar Index, it will be interesting to see if it can hold its war highs.
On a side noteApril seasonals for the US dollar are not supportive, being the worst month for the currency in the year.7
US and Canada economic calendar for the rest of the week
US and Canadian data by next Wednesday, April 8th, 2026. Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
Footnotes:
1- https://think.ing.com/articles/rates-spark-pessimism-sets-the-tone-in-markets/
2- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1e9yy84we8o
3- https://x.com/LiveSquawk/status/2039336655853699182
4- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-31/iran-war-updates-trump-markets-optimism
5- https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/lasting-economic-scars-war
7- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/april-seasonality-sees-worst-month-114500440.html
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high-risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
