North American weekly update: US-Iran negotiations are driving recent market euphoria, and traders are impatient to see a proper peace deal in order to continue the next leg. With expectations elevated, concrete results are awaited.
Markets continue their euphoric ascension with both parties reportedly eager to pursue talks.
Traders seem to have a sixth sense for turning points in the narrative, with Stock Market buyers ruthlessly bidding prices back up to just below pre-war highs.
A cautious analysis could warn of a potential for ecstatic behavior, particularly when no peace deal has yet been properly drawn up.
Dow Jones daily chart. April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
After a chaotic first round of negotiations over the weekend, anxiety rose, but it did not last long, as President Trump repeatedly reassured that "[Iran] sent the right people and they want to make a deal." The Nuclear issue, a particular subject of contention, is now in line for the coming resumption of discussions on Thursday.
Meanwhile, with direct Israel-Lebanon talks also officially underway – the first since 1993, peace in the Middle East seems closer by the day, but doubts remain.
The reality could be a bit more chaotic than what participants are pricing, but all they wanted to see was a war that doesn't escalate any further (and with fears of a ground operation just three weeks ago, this is pretty decent progress).
The latest news from the Associated Press reported that the mediators are now looking to extend the ceasefire, set to expire next Tuesday, April 22.
Furthermore, even energy commodity traders are now attempting to turn the page on this heavy chapter, with the escalation premium now fully erased.
As a result, only a ~$20 supply drought premium remains, which should only be erased if and when a deal is reached.
WTI Oil daily chart, April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the macroeconomic side, the US reported a less hot-than-expected PPI report, which began to show a turn in demand-side inflation, with only heavy supply, energy-linked inflation hurting prospects.
After all, IEEPA tariffs got banned by the US Supreme Court, which quickly took out a few percentage points from the data – the nastier side of it is the fact that oil-led inflation can affect inflation in a 3 to 6 month span as businesses initially absorb the lower margins before passing them on to consumers (when looking at prior energy crises).
On the northern border, Canada just reported an important rebound in Manufacturing sales, up 3.6% (slightly missing the 3.8% estimate), erasing the -3% loss from January.
This continues to show how sideways North American economies have evolved in recent times, with Employment for both the US and Canada continuously wiggling and economic indicators slowing and bouncing again.
Policymakers will likely wait to see the effects of the war on consumption and inflation before moving the needle.
Kevin Warsh's hearing is now expected next week, after being delayed by Jerome Powell's court case – Trump had some words on the issue this morning (and, as per usual, they were not the sweetest).
Let's dive right into our weekly North American Markets recap.
Intraday technical levels for the USD/CAD
USD/CAD 4H chart, April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
USD/CAD continues to correct within its large range, having broken the key momentum 1.38 pivot.
Now evolving within an intermediate bear-channel, traders will be looking at the key 1.3750 support to see whether it holds or breaks.
Levels of interest for USD/CAD:
Resistance levels
- 1.38 pivot +/- 150 pips
- 1.3850 resistance
- 1.39 to 1.3925 support turned resistance
- 1.3950 mini-resistance (range highs and recent top)
- 1.40 major resistance
Support levels
- 1.3750 pivotal support
- 1.3630 to 1.3660 key support
- 1.3550 main 2025 support (range lows)
US dollar mid-week performance vs major currencies
USD vs other majors since last Monday, April 15, 2026 - Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US and Canada economic calendar for the rest of the week
US and Canadian data by next Wednesday, April 22nd, 2026. Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high-risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
