North American weekly update: US-Iran talks are reportedly starting again after four weeks of conflict, which is already easing Oil prices and general market sentiment. Will this hold? Dive into the US dollar, North American market performance, USD/CAD, and more.
As we are now well into the fourth week of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, market participants are still looking to see whether we are in for a long ride.
At the commencement of the conflict, both the US and Israeli sides announced operations spanning around five weeks1, something that largely got priced out as the war continued and anxious headlines came by the thousand. We are slowly approaching the deadline.
The reality of the strategic advances is difficult to estimate, but what is certain is that ballistic missile and drone launches have greatly diminished since the start of the war, from 100 salvos at once to the current 1 or 2 per launch2. WTI's correlations with other asset classes throughout the war have generated trading opportunities, even if some of the commodity's movements were nothing short of erratic.
The bottom line remains the same. All that markets want to know is: How long will this war drag on? Is the Strait of Hormuz going to be relieved? Is Oil heading back down?
For now, a ceasefire by April 30 is still shy of 50% priced in.3
Investors are slowly turning back to PMI and other economic indicators to see whether rate hikes would actually be warranted or if the economy is facing a standstill amid current peak-cycle estimates.
Data points are diverging across the board – labor data has been on a roller coaster, with Jobless Claims consistently declining but Non-Farm payrolls correcting4.
The past session also offered puzzling data for the US, as Manufacturing PMIs just came in with a decent beat (52.4 vs 51 exp) while the Services PMIs are now backing off (51.1 vs 51.7 exp).
In Canada, traders are attempting to price in hikes. Still, the latest inflation and growth data haven't yet corroborated5 that view – and BoC Governor Macklem didn't explicitly indicate anything of the sort.6
The general idea is not to overinterpret market signals and headlines, as no one knows what to do with the current situation.
Intraday technical levels for the USD/CAD
USD/CAD 4H chart, March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
USD/CAD is now forming a newfound upward channel, within a higher timeframe range between 1.3550 and 1.3850.
Levels of interest for USD/CAD:
Resistance levels
- 1.38 Pivotal resistance +/- 100 pips (testing)
- 1.3850 mini-resistance
- 1.39 to 1.3925 support turned resistance
Support Levels
- 4H 50-period MA 1.3724
- 1.3750 Momentum pivot
- 1.3630 to 1.3660 key support
- 1.3550 Main 2025 support (imminent rebound)
- October 2024 support 1.3450 to 1.35
US dollar mid-week performance vs major currencies
USD vs other majors since last Wednesday, March 25, 2026 - Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The US dollar remains on top of recent FX performance.
The Petrodollar is largely reversing its losses against the Australian dollar, but is slightly dipping against the euro and GBP, which are on the way to price in hikes at their upcoming meeting.5
US and Canada economic calendar for the rest of the week
US and Canadian data by next Wednesday, April 1st, 2026.. Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
Footnotes:
1 - https://globalnews.ca/news/11712746/donald-trump-iran/
2 -
https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-air-campaign-after-three-weeks-iran-war-numbers
3 - https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by
5 - https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/indicators
6 - https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-2026-03-18/
7 - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/ecb-rate-hikes-inflation-forecasts-christine-lagarde-iran-war.html
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high-risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
