It’s a long start to 2026, as seas of headlines and themes keep adding to an already high-volatility setup in financial markets. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump threatened the EU, pledging to purchase Greenland, the gigantic Arctic island under Danish jurisdiction. In that aspect, markets opened on large risk-off flows, hurting the US dollar and boosting the Swissie.
Markets and traders open the week on a volatile note, a habit that has become quite common in this freshly started year.
The attention quickly shifted from a potential intervention in Iran to heightened US threats to acquire Greenland by purchase.
EU heads of state are planning an emergency meeting, even as the Davos Forum begins. Geopolitical intimidation has combined with additional economic warnings to raise the current 15% tariff rate by 10% if the European Union disagrees.
It is safe to say that the EU will never agree, particularly as it would set a dangerous precedent for the present.
In terms of market flows, the headlines quickly translated into a widespread selloff in USD and American assets, spanning bonds (yields are rising) to equities.
The Swiss Franc is standing not only as a European proxy but also benefiting from its joint currency neighbor's compromise, thereby acting as a key risk-off currency amid high global tensions.
In that regard, sellers have broken the rising channel that formed at the end of 2025, leading to highs near 0.8040 just last Thursday. Now, facing a key test at its 4H 200-period moving average after a 0.80% drop, traders will want to spot how prices react to further headlines.
Monetary policy is not priced to change anytime soon for the Federal Reserve (next meeting on January 28th) or the Swiss National Bank, which is easing its plans for negative rates1. Traders will then focus on geopolitical themes for the pair in the meantime.
USD/CHF 4H chart, January 19, 2026. Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Resistance levels
- Short-timeframe pivot 0.7990 and 4H 50-period MA
- 0.8025 to 0.8040 recent resistance
- 0.8050 mid-term resistance
- 0.8075 major 2025 resistance
Support levels
- 0.7950 - 0.7960 mini-support
- 0.7970 200-period moving average
- 0.7925 Minor Support
- 0.79 (+80 pips) 2025 main support
- 2011 support 0.7830 to 0.7860
This article is for general information purposes only, not to be considered a recommendation or financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell instruments.
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