After past Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report from the US, it could have been expected to see the traditionally most-volatile pair breakout. But, amid weakening from both the US Dollar due to increased rate cut expectations and the Yen due to the firing of their Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, rangebound conditions in USDJPY have held strong.
The freshly released US Non-Farm Payrolls report could have remodeled markets all around, but amid this week’s CPI and PPI reports, participants are holding off on preemptive directional bets.
USDJPY has been oscillating since August 4th between 146.30 and 149.00 in a broad consolidation range.
The softness trend in the US labor market is confirmed, and participants are still looking to see if this week's inflation releases will increase bets for a 50 bps cut to US interest rates compared to the 25 bps that are currently priced in.
The September FOMC meeting is happening next week on Wednesday, September 17th.
Fundamentals for the Japanese Yen are equally unsupportive. Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation has created uncertainty about future policies, despite the Japanese economy showing some strength. Japan just beat expectations on its GDP data, released on Sunday evening1.
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USD/JPY 8H chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Compared to other major pairs that have broken out since Friday’s data, USD/JPY has been holding its range.
Fundamentals are equally as uncertain for the USD and the JPY; while waiting for further policy changes from the FOMC, participants are maintaining the 146.00 to 146.50 support and the 148.70 to 149.50 resistance.
The weekly open did show a gap higher in the pair due to thin liquidity, bringing a sudden and short-lived yen offer. As volumes picked up, traders have filled the liquidity gap and are battling to push below the neutral 148.00 pivot zone.
Watch reactions at the next support test to determine whether inflation data boosts the US Dollar or fails to do so.
Levels to watch for the currency pair:
Resistance Levels
- Pivot at the 148.00 zone (immediate resistance)
- May range extremes from 148.70 to 149.50 (daily MA 200 in confluence)
- 150.00 psychological resistance
Support Levels
- 146.50 mid-range and immediate support (8H MA 200 in confluence)
- 145.00 psychological support
- 142.35 low of the May range, main support
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