When wartime commences, flows change drastically, changing the picture across asset classes. The Swiss franc had actually dominated the first month of 2026, supported by safe-haven flows, with the Swiss National Bank’s reluctance to cut rates to negative. The US dollar on the other hand, suffered from the more recent Trump and Fed uncertainty. This trade has now unrolled for the large part as the war continues.
Forex markets are eruptive and have seen historic volatility since COVID after a decade of calm, rangebound conditions.1
And this volatility has picked up yet again in 2026, led by the global reserve currency and its streak of rollercoaster dynamics. After a severe weakening against the Swiss franc due to unstable Trump Administration policies, the USD hit low levels, which were unseen since 2011 in the pair.
Since the end of January, however, dollar bulls are making a comeback with more hawkish Federal Reserve projections2, and more importantly, throughout March, a return to dollar demand as the ultimate safe-haven when panic grips markets.3
The ongoing war has damaged European and Asian currencies as economic activity is getting squeezed by tougher energy market conditions4. Commodities are still unable to cross the Strait of Hormuz for the fifth week, dragging not only growth prospects, but also creating angst regarding a potential rebound of supply-led inflation, unfavorable for Central Banks to combat.
As a matter of fact, the SNB is now priced for about two hikes in the year, promptly after pricing negative cuts in a complete U-turn in policy pricing5, but this hasn’t managed to pull USDCHF lower as it maintains its consistent bull-channel.
Now testing the 0.80 major psychological level, traders are assessing if the war could extend further, as it has until now benefited the US dollar, which poses the question if its rally can continue. US-Iran talks are supposedly making progress, as indicated by President Trump, hence preparing for the next phase of the war, which may invoke repricings in the current FX flows6.
USD/CHF 4H chart, March 30, 2026. Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Resistance levels
- 0.8025 to 0.8050 2026 highs
- 0.8075 to 0.81 Late 2025 range highs
- Main 2025 resistance 0.8150 to 0.82
- January highs 0.80409
Support levels
- 0.7950 Momentum pivot
- 0.7850 2025 lows pivotal support
- 0.7780 to 0.78 support
- 0.77 to 0.7725 August 2011 lows support
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high-risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
