Starting the third week of the US government shutdown, the US dollar is strengthening. This comes at the particular cost of the more dovish and previously dominant Swiss franc.
The Swiss franc has been facing renewed volatility this week as traders reassess the balance between domestic weakness and global optimism.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has struggled with low inflation — occasionally dipping into deflation — throughout 2025, prompting policymakers to cut rates to 0% in a bid to reflate the economy and stimulate lending.
Meanwhile, the franc strengthened throughout the first half of 2025 as investors sought diversification away from the US dollar amid months of uncertainty tied to the Trump administration's trade and policy swings. But that trend may be reversing.
With peace talks in the Middle East gaining traction and not-so-bad US private data reducing the 2026 extent of FOMC cuts, offering support while the BLS remains shuttered, confidence in the US dollar is attempting a comeback.
As a result, USD/CHF is pushing higher, showing a notable shift in market sentiment and testing key resistance levels that could shape the next directional move.
Let’s explore the chart of the week.
USDCHF 4H chart, October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
USDCHF is currently evolving in an upward channel. At the end of last week, the pair was caught in some volatile swings.
Sellers appeared at a confluence between the September highs (0.8076) and the upper bound of the channel.
Nonetheless, the 4H 50-period moving average has crossed above the 200-period MA, for the first time in months, which marks a switch in momentum confirmed by an RSI staying above the neutral line.
Buyers also entered, using the MA 50 as support around the 0.80 level, which acts as a key pivot for upcoming price action.
Watch the price action as prices reach Friday’s peak (0.80762) and observe reactions within the channel to spot a breakout or a lack thereof.
Resistance levels
- 0.8060 to 0.8075 September highs and upper bound of the channel
- 0.81040 August 22 highs
- Main resistance 0.8150 to 0.82
Support levels
- 0.80 psychological level and pivot acting as support
- 0.7950 key support
- 0.78575 2025 lows support
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This article is for general information purposes only, not to be considered a recommendation or financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell instruments.
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