Following the FOMC and Bank of Canada’s September meetings, both of which delivered 25 bps cuts, currency markets have become more volatile. Yet, USDCAD remains one of the few major pairs still confined to its range. Let’s take a look at the key levels defining this consolidation.
Markets had been waiting for last week to move on from the huge central bank catalysts, preventing many directional trajectories for currency markets.
However, with both the Bank of Canada (2.75% to 2.50%) and the FOMC (4.50% to 4.25%) cutting rates by 25 bps, participants saw what they needed to actively participate.
Despite a softer opening for the US dollar and the loonie, both North American currencies had performed well against their major counterparts since Governor Macklem and Chair Powell delivered less-dovish-than-expected remarks at their respective press conferences.
This helped both currencies to finish on top of the major board (with the greenback closing the week #01.
However, with both currencies strengthening at a relatively similar pace, USDCAD hasn’t been able to break out.
With the pair still holding a 1.3730 to 1.3860 range since August 25th, any weekly close above or below these key levels would imply a breakout.
However, the current range is tenacious, and before Thursday's 25th US GDP data (8:30 AM ET), there isn’t much on the calendar to tilt the scales in the pair except for an appearance by BoC Governor Macklem (Tuesday 02:30 PM ET) at a conference in Saskatoon, Canada.
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USDCAD 4H chart, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Resistance Levels
- Friday 18th highs 1.38254 (acting as momentum level)
- Immediate pivot 1.38 handle +/- 150 pips (currently testing)
- 1.3850 to 1.3860 main resistance
- 1.3925 Aug 22 highs
Support Levels
- Key longer-term pivot turned support 1.3750
- 1.3660 intermediate support
- 1.3550 main 2025 support
This article is for general information purposes only, not to be considered a recommendation or financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell instruments.
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