The US dollar is strengthening slightly ahead of the US inflation data, with CPI coming up on Tuesday (8:30 A.M. ET) and PPI on Thursday (8:30 A.M. ET).
The week is opening with mixed, though relative risk-on flows, dragged up by positive cryptocurrency performance.
There is potential for high volatility, however, as markets cannot get enough data, particularly regarding inflation post-implementation of the infamous Trump tariffs.
The US dollar has been struggling the past week but has found a local bottom for the morning session.
It will be key to examine the upcoming data to see if this trend will last. In the meantime, let’s identify the main levels for USDCAD trading.
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USD/CAD 8H chart, August 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The North American pair trades within a multi-week consolidation range, at a key juncture after a strong late July rally.
The past week's dip in the US dollar—driven by weak US data and rising Fed rate cut expectations—pulled the pair back from its highs.
The decline found support near a confluence of technical levels, including the June/July range highs turned pivot around 1.3750, the 50 and 200-period Moving Averages, and the 50% retracement of the late-July rally.
RSI momentum is pointing higher but remains close to neutral. However, it will be essential to monitor the reactions to the 1.38 level as markets prepare for tomorrow's US inflation number.
A drop below recent swing lows (1.37220) would likely return the pair to its June/July range.
Conversely, a push above the 1.38 pivot zone could point to a test of the August 1st highs at 1.3880.
Upcoming US inflation data will likely set the tone.
This article is for general information purposes only, not to be considered a recommendation or financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell instruments.
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