We are now past the 5-week deadline initially announced by the Trump Administration for the war's duration, and despite some rallies in equity markets, currency markets reflect ongoing uncertainty. The Euro had lost some ground against the US dollar as the old continent was particularly badly hit by energy market disruptions, while the Greenback held on to its petrodollar status. This leads to today’s rangebound action.
The US-Iran war has rocked financial markets since the beginning of March, and despite the calmer tone regarding the conflict soothing investor sentiment the previous week1, currency markets remain less optimistic.
Energy commodities, particularly Crude Oil, have reached gradual highs that are nearing the March 8, 2026, $119.54 highs – despite President Trump shifting his approach on the conflict, mentioning that “[Iran has] had regime change”2 and that the largest army was ready to move forward with a deal.
But as long as Crude prices remain near their conflict highs, currency markets cannot catch their breath.3
WTI Crude 4H chart, April 7, 2026. Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Indeed, the US dollar initially gave up its high ground against its FX peers, but the effect was merely temporary. With the narrative not changing much since last week and the Iranian side rejecting US proposals in its attempt to secure more concessions, the USD could not give up much more.
This results in the current range-bound action seen in EUR/USD, stuck between 1.1450 to 1.1650 since March 20. This range consolidated the two major moving averages, the 50 and 200-period, that are now containing the price action.
EUR/USD 4H chart, April 7, 2026. Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Resistance levels
- 200-hour moving average 1.16
- Resistance 1.16250 to 1.16350
- 1.1650 to 1.17 March resistance
- 1.1750 psychological resistance
Support levels
- 1.1540 to 1.1570 Momentum pivot
- 1.1450 to 1.1490 November support
- War lows 1.14111
- August 2025 lows 1.14
Footnotes:
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high-risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
