Last week, the British pound continued to move within the confines of a tight 1,000-pip range, reflecting the lack of strong directional drivers. Despite US PMIs and UK’s Retail Sales releases, attention turns to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls, which could prove decisive in shifting dynamics for the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD enters the week still confined within its well-watched range, with traders cautious ahead of a packed US data calendar. Last week’s trading had been very calm, typical of the pre-Labor Day week in North America, but the action should pick up again this week.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday and Services PMI on Thursday will set the tone for US dollar flows, while UK Retail Sales (2:00 A.M. ET) on Friday could provide a domestic spark for sterling.
However, the real focus lies with the US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday, 8:30 A.M. ET) later that day — participants have been awaiting this release to move their pieces further since last month’s report introduced some form of correction in the US Labor force strength.
Let’s turn to Cable charts to see how the setup looks heading into this key week.
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GBP/USD 8H chart, September 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
After the swift rejection of the prior month's US dollar strength throughout the first weeks of August, currency markets have been awaiting each other to see who will move next.
But all participants are looking at the same culprit: The USD.
After Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance, a cut for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting is back on the table.
With the contradicting NFP (dovish pressures) and PPI (hawkish pressures due to tariffs) reports released in August, markets have been hesitant and looking for more clarity.
Indeed, all eyes are on Friday’s data release, which will be a preview of what is to come in the FED’s 18th of September meeting: A 25 bps cut is 89% priced in1, and participants are looking to spot if there is enough data to warrant the pricing of a 50 bps cut.
This comes amid the increasing pressure on the FED’s independence after the firing of Governor Lisa Cook.
In the meantime, GBPUSD has been holding a 1,000 pip range between 1.3450 and 1.3550, which confirms the markets' indecisive mood.
You may observe the 200-period moving average holding in the middle of that region, while the RSI oscillates around the neutral level.
Prices have formed a triangle formation which provides in technical analysis a measured move target for a breakout using the base, formed on Friday 22nd of August.
The one element to consider is, due to the indecisive charts, the direction is not yet known and will be subject to this week’s data releases.
Resistance Levels
- Pivot zone 1.35
- past week extremes and high of range 1.35420
- Resistance at the 1.36 zone
Support Levels
- Low of range 1.3450
- 1.34 Main support zone
- Support from 1.3260 to 1.33
This article is for general information purposes only, not to be considered a recommendation or financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell instruments.
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