Traders are now moving past the September FOMC, and with the streak of positive US data in the past two weeks, the next rate cut will be another question to be answered. The Euro is holding firm against most of its major counterparts, but right now, bulls and bears are in a tug of war against the US dollar to find the next direction for the pair.
We are already moving towards October, concluding a volatile month for currencies.
The usual culprit, the US dollar, was found in crosswinds, leading to a pre-FOMC sudden selloff followed by a consequent rebound as data kept on showing a strong US picture.
In spiky price action, Euro bulls took EUR/USD to new yearly highs right ahead of the September meeting, but they were met with a flash-wick rejection as participants realized the US rate cut path would still not be as easy as expected.
While European data continues to show a progressing recovery from a steep slowdown in 2024, proving the effect of rate cuts on the slowing joint economy, US data showed a 3.8% annualized GDP in Q2 just last week, combined with strong Jobless Claims, which dispel dissenting attempts to the world’s largest economy.
But traders need to look forward, so what are the themes in play for this week?
Starting the week, traders might be afraid of a potential US government shutdown, which, if it occurs, would provide another bearish catalyst for the US dollar.
We are also entering the September Non-farm payrolls release, which has the potential to change the entire market dynamic. Markets haven’t reacted too much to European data lately, but keep an eye on the Eurozone inflation and PPI releases this week.
Let’s dive into the chart of the week.
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EURUSD 8H chart, September 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Diving into the EURUSD 8H chart, we spot how traders took the August consolidation to a higher breakout towards the middle of September.
However, the peak attained right ahead of the FOMC, at 1.19188, was met with a sharp reversal, which brought back action at the current pivot around 1.17.
This level also coincides with the August range upper bound, which will enhance its role as a key level to look at, particularly as it is a psychological price magnet.
Since the FOMC, the action is evolving in a steep downward channel, which gives a direction for intermediate action but also provides potential breakout levels.
Traders could also look at the 50-period moving average acting as resistance and the MA 200 acting as support.
Resistance Levels
- 1.17520 50-Period MA
- Main resistance 1.18 to 1.1830
- 1.19188 yearly highs
- 1.20 psychological level and 2021 highs
Support Levels
- Daily Pivot 1.17 to 1.1740
- 1.16850 MA 200
- 1.1570 to 1.16 Main support
- 1.1470 Pivotal support
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