Last week, the US dollar had seen some contradicting inflation reports, starting with the CPI coming in as a relief for investors before the PPI took all of that back. The 0.9% beat on both the headline and core data points to the first hits from tariff-led inflation. With the EU/US and Russian geopolitics also into play, let’s have a look at the most traded currency pair.
Last Friday, the much-anticipated meeting between the US and Russian Presidents, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, created a newfound thirst for geopolitical headlines.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and EU leaders, including France’s President Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Starmer, are expected at the White House to discuss the next step for the deadliest war in Europe in the century.
With the latest US data, where tariff-led inflation started to show its true colors, dropping rate cut expectations for the September meeting, and European geopolitics, EUR/USD has many potential catalysts for volatility.
Let’s look at the technicals for the most traded currency pair.
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EUR/USD Daily chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Since August 1st, coinciding with the disappointing US Jobs report, the euro has been in a V-shape reversal and came very close to its July 28 pivot highs (1.1770, a key level) towards the middle of last week.
Adding to the PMIs that are starting to play a heightened role in FX movement yet again releasing for EU countries and the US, geopolitics particularly this week as it comes to investment and defense plans will shape the flows for EUR/USD.
The Dollar Index (DXY) is hanging around the 98.00 psychological level and is consolidating, allowing a break for the bulls in the pair for the morning NA session, leading to some ongoing retracement in the pair.
The 50-Day MA, currently at 1.16370 acts as immediate support and is a key indicator to keep an eye on: A rebound on a retest would point towards the yearly highs, while prices breaking the MA again will point more towards a retest of the 1.15 support zone,
For other indicator signals (or lack thereof), the 14-period RSI is hanging around neutral, indicating ongoing indecision which is confirmed with the current tight range.
Stay close to the headlines for any potential breakouts.
Levels to watch for the currency pair:
Resistance Levels
- 1.1730 past week highs
- 1.1760 to 1.18 2025 highs resistance zone, 2020 highs
- 1.1830 2025 top
Support Levels
- Current Pivot Zone 1.16 to 1.1650 (coinciding with the 50-Day MA)
- 1.15 Psychological Level
- 1.1350 to 1.14 Support 2
This article is for general information purposes only, not to be considered a recommendation or financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell instruments.
Opinions are the authors; not necessarily those of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors.
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