The US-Iran war, which has been beneficial to the US dollar and Crude oil prices, is now seemingly coming to an end. Equity markets extended to all-time highs, supporting the risk-on Australian dollar to fully reverse the corrective moves from earlier this year.
The US-Iran war, a conflict that had fiercely supported the US dollar through a massive geopolitical premium, now appears to be nearing its end.
As diplomatic developments continue to unfold, global equity markets have charged to fresh all-time highs in a stellar explosion.1 This newfound risk-on environment is providing a supportive backdrop for the Australian dollar to fully reverse the corrective moves it suffered earlier this year as the Greenback bounced again.
On the geopolitical front, the situation remains delicately poised but optimistic.
Reports indicate that Iran is reviewing its ongoing participation in the peace talks, though a final decision has not yet been officially announced. With a US delegation led by JD Vance reportedly touching down in Islamabad on Monday, negotiations are clearly entering a critical phase.2
Benefiting directly from the fading safe-haven appeal of the greenback, AUD/USD is now evolving within a defined bull channel.
The pair surged about 4.65% since bottoming out at its March 31 lows, recently testing its 2026 extremes before initiating a mean-reversion, now reaching the lower bound of its bull trend.
However, traders are not entirely dropping their guard. With the temporary ceasefire rapidly approaching its expiration (April 22), participants will be seeking a lasting resolution to the conflict.3
AUD/USD 4H chart, April 20, 2026. Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Resistance levels
- 2023 Highs 0.7140 to 0.7160 resistance
- 0.71867 March highs
- Friday 17 top 0.72220
- June 2022 extremes 0.72 to 0.7230
Support levels
- Channel lower bound 0.7130
- 4H 50-period moving average 0.71130
- Minor support 0.7080
- 0.6970 - 0.70 major pivot
Footnotes:
