100 Days of Trump: How have financial markets performed so far?

With April 30th marking 100 days since Trump returned to office, the ‘golden age of America’ is off to an interesting start.

Taking a look at the data, here’s how the markets are looking so far under Trump’s second term in the White House.

A virtue of being undervalued by some, a flight to safety for others, the recent appreciation in gold pricing is nothing short of remarkable.

Gaining just shy of 20% in Trump’s first 100 days in office, the recent rally not only saw gold at all-time highs but also represented the precious metals’ best-ever performance in any 100-day period to date.

Having recently benefited from safe-haven flows and a general weakening of the US dollar, gold remains in the spotlight amid ongoing tariff negotiations and tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve owing to their differing views on monetary policy.

When put in one word, uncertainty across the markets has allowed gold to reach new highs in recent memory, offering an interesting indictment of Trump’s return to power.

With the first 100 days since Trump’s return bookmarked by a wave of USD weakness, the dollar has weakened versus many of its peers, with the euro proving no exception.

Trading around 10% higher versus the dollar at the 100-day mark, market uncertainty surrounding tariffs, tension between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and generalized concern for the future American economy has allowed EUR/USD to extend gains, having earlier this year fallen to fresh lows unseen since 2022.

Despite the market being in a ‘risk-off’ environment and the US dollar boasting an interest rate some ~1.1% higher than that of the euro, the recent rally in EUR/USD pricing shows how the actions of Trump and his administration are having a profound effect on the dollar.

Read more: How to Trade EUR/USD: Top 5 Tips to Boost Your Trading

Following similar economic themes to EUR/USD, cable gained ground over the dollar in the first 100 days following Trump’s return, ranking third amongst tracked assets.

Trading at yearly lows come inauguration day, GBP/USD would see a sustained rally in early March and early to mid-April to gain over 2.5% versus the dollar over the 100-day period, despite a minor blip in performance at the height of the US equities sell-off.

Whether this trend will continue will likely depend on the eventual success or failure of Trump’s strong-arm tactics regarding trade, with any major developments regarding trade agreements likely to breed some confidence in Trump policy.

Boasting a reasonable gain of around 2.00%, AUD/USD trades higher now when compared to pricing on January 20th.

In a similar vein to the euro and pound, dollar weakness has allowed the Australian dollar to gain ground in the past 100 days, especially considering the RBA and Federal Reserve appear to have held a similar approach to monetary policy so far in 2025.

While the same themes as the above currency pairs apply, US-China trade relations are particularly significant for AUD/USD with Australia being one of China’s largest trade partners, with iron ore, gold, and natural gas being some significant exports for the Australian economy.

If Chinese manufacturing conditions are to worsen courtesy of US-China trade tensions, this could negatively affect the Australian dollar. So, as ever, any developments on trade deals or the relaxing of tariffs are especially significant for AUD/USD traders in the next 100 days and beyond.

With the United States’ relationship with Canada receiving much attention in the last 100 days, it would seem that the scope has expanded beyond just that of trade agreements.

Throughout Trump’s first 100 days in office, the Canadian dollar has strengthened by around ~4.75% versus the US dollar amid negotiations on the future of the USMCA and some inflammatory comments from the now-president, referring to Canada as the “51st state” of America.²
Coupled with new Canadian leadership through ex-BoE governor Mark Carney, the last 100 days have undoubtedly been eventful for USD/CAD traders, with a renewed focus on the importance of North American trade relations — United States of America included.

When Trump assumed office earlier this year, US equities were at all-time highs, gaining just shy of 25% in 2024.

The 100 days that have followed, however, have looked somewhat different.

With risk appetite at lows following recent tariff announcements, world equities came under substantial selling pressure amid a flight to safety, with the S&P 500 falling over 20% from previous highs held earlier this year.

At market close on the 100th day since Trump regained office, the S&P sits around 7.00% lower than at the inauguration, with general market uncertainty weighing negatively on most major stock indexes globally.

With risk aversion and a general flight to safety among some of the most significant economic themes recently, the last 100 days have been an interesting ride for USD/JPY traders.

100 days after taking office, USD/JPY trades around ~8.82% lower, reflecting a weaker dollar and an appetite to buy Japanese yen amid market uncertainty.

While US-Japan relations are perhaps not as contentious as others, the possibility of a trade agreement between the two nations remains one of the most significant forces determining USD/JPY pricing in the short term.

Learn more: How to Trade USD/JPY: 5 Tips for your Trading

With the performance of crude oil closely tied to economic prosperity and activity, recent tariff announcements disrupting global trade have, somewhat predictably, weighed negatively on world oil pricing.

Falling almost 30% in value since Trump’s return to the White House, the recent sell-off represents crude’s worst performance since 2020 as markets attempted to understand what oil demand would look like under the latest round of US tariffs.

Compounded general fears of oversupply, partly due to OPEC policy, market conditions since Trump’s return to the White House have been the ‘perfect storm’ for oil devaluation, with recent price action a reminder of how delicate global trade can be.

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Footnotes

¹https://www.tradingview.com/broker/OANDA/

²https://www.reuters.com/world/us/carney-meets-trump-bid-reset-strained-canada-us-relations-2025-05-06/

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