A banner year for metals: Deciphering the major price trajectories and technical structures for XAU/USD, XAG/USD, and XCU/USD as we head into 2026.
2026 Metals Outlook: Gold, Silver and Copper poised to extend bull market amid Fed easing and global growth recovery
Key takeaways
2025 set a high bar for metals: Gold (+66%), silver (+128%), and copper (+36%) dominated cross-asset performance, driven by Fed pivot expectations, supply constraints, and China-linked demand optimism.
Gold’s bull trend remains structurally intact: Falling US inflation expectations and lower real yields continue to underpin gold, with no clear signs of long-term exhaustion despite record highs.
Silver’s rally still has room to run: The parabolic move is supported by its dual safe-haven and industrial demand profile, while futures positioning remains below historical extremes.
Copper supported by global manufacturing recovery: Improving PMI diffusion trends and electrification-related demand reinforce copper’s long-term bullish structure, despite volatility risks.
2025 was a banner year for both precious and industrial metals, where gold and silver doubled/quadrupled their typical moves, while copper hit multi-year highs on a mix of supply shocks and Chinese demand expectations.
Fig. 1: Year-to-date performances of cross assets as of 19 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro).
Year to date as of 19 December 2025, silver (+128%), gold (+66%), and copper (+36%) have been standout performers across asset classes, ranking at the top and decisively outperforming the AI-heavy Nasdaq 100 (+21%) and Bitcoin (-6.7%) (see Fig. 1).
Let's have a quick recap first on the key drivers that shaped the stellar performances of gold, silver, and copper in 2025, as shown in the summary table below.
| Metal | YTD return as of 19 Dec 2025 | Macro drivers | Flows & positioning | Supply dynamics | Demand dynamics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Strong rally (66%) | Falling real yields, Fed pivot narrative, episodic inflation fears. | Heavy ETF inflows, central bank buying, and momentum-following funds. | Supply stable; mine growth limited. | Investment & central banks’ reserve demand dominated. |
| Silver | Explosive (128%) | Gold spillover, the Fed’s easing expectations. | Aggressive speculative & retail flows. | Structural deficits; recycling lag. | Dual role on safe-haven and industrial demands (solar, electronics, data centres). |
| Copper | Solid (36%) | China stimulus expectations, global electrification theme. | Commodity Trading Advisors & macro funds are active on the breakout. | Major mine disruptions, low visible inventories. | Construction, power grid, EV-related demand; China remains pivotal. |
Next, we shall turn our focus to decipher the major trends trajectory of gold, silver, and copper from a technical analysis perspective.
Lower US 10-year inflation expectations support gold’s major bullish trend
Fig. 2: 10-YR US breakeven rate & Gold (XAU/USD) major trends of 19 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView).
The 10-year US breakeven rate reflects market expectations for average inflation over the next decade, derived from the spread between the nominal 10-year US Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield.
The longer-term trend of the 10-year US breakeven rate has an indirect correlation with gold (XAU/USD). Since the major peak of 2.98% was printed on the 10-year US breakeven rate in April 2022, during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, it staged a bearish reversal. It drifted lower to 2.03% in September 2024, approaching the US Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target rate of 2% (see Fig. 2).
Gold (XAU/USD) moved in the opposite direction, having already embarked on its current major uptrend since October 2022. Notably, the 10-year US breakeven inflation rate broke decisively below a key ascending support in October 2025 and has since fallen to an eight-month low of 2.24% as of 19 December 2025.
A potentially significant drop in the 10-year US breakeven inflation rate allows the Fed to embark on a looser monetary policy stance to stimulate economic growth. Gold prices tend to rise as real interest rates decline due to falling inflationary expectations.
Gold’s bullish acceleration phase remains intact
Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) major trend of 19 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView).
Gold (XAU/USD)’s bullish acceleration phase since the November 2024 low of US$2,537 remains intact as price actions started to oscillate within a steeper ascending channel and traded above the key 200-day moving average.
So far, gold is not showing any clear signs of a major bullish exhaustion since its current all-time high of US$4,381 printed on 20 October 2025, as its weekly RSI momentum indicator has not flashed out any bearish divergence condition at its overbought region.
Watch the US$3,500/3,435 key long-term pivotal support, and a clearance above US$4,560 may see the next major resistances coming in at US$5,006, and US$5,337/5,450 (see Fig. 3).
On the other hand, a break with a weekly close below US$3,435 invalidates the bullish acceleration phase to trigger a potential major correction decline sequence to expose the next major supports of US$3,194 and US$2,790.
Silver’s parabolic rally is supported by futures positioning
Fig. 4: Silver futures net positions of large speculators less large commercials as of 9 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro).
Fig. 5: Silver (XAG/USD) major trend as of 19 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView).
Based on data from the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, large speculators’ net positions after deduction from large commercials’ (hedgers) net positions show a net long of 105,536 contracts as of 9 December 2025.
It is still below a one-year high of 151,713 recorded on 22 October 2024, which in turn reduces the risk of a bullish exhaustion behaviour as net long futures positioning by large speculators has not reached overstretched conditions (see Fig. 4).
Watch the US$54.48 long-term pivotal support on silver (XAG/USD) to hold any potential pull-back in price actions for the next major resistances to come in at US$73.60 and US$83.47 in the first step (see Fig. 5).
However, a break and a weekly close below US$54.48 invalidates the bullish scenario for a potential deeper corrective decline sequence to expose the next major supports at US$48.37 and US$42.46.
An improving global manufacturing outlook supports copper’s bullish trend
Fig. 6: Global Manufacturing PMI Diffusion Index with Copper of Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)
Fig. 7: Copper (XCU/USD) major trend of 19 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView).
The PMI Diffusion Index tracks the share of countries with manufacturing PMIs at or above 50, while the PMI Year-on-Year Diffusion Index captures the proportion recording non-negative annual PMI growth.
Higher readings in these diffusion measures signal a broader improvement in global economic conditions, typically translating into stronger industrial activity and, in turn, increased demand for industrial metals such as copper (see Fig. 6).
The price actions of copper (XCU/USD) have continued to oscillate within a long-term secular ascending channel since March 2020, supported by a bullish momentum reading from the weekly RSI momentum indicator as it trended higher after a retest on a key ascending support in September 2025.
Watch the 4.4400 key long-term pivotal support on copper (XCU/USD) to maintain the long-term bullish trend for the next major resistances to come in at 6.2130 and 6.9440 (see Fig. 7).
On the flip side, a break and a weekly close below 4.4400 put the bullish trend in jeopardy to trigger a corrective decline sequence towards the next major supports at 3.9150 and 3.2820.
In case you missed it: Global equities 2026 outlook: Dow Jones catch-up and Asia's bullish structures.
The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
