Technical analysis of USDCHF. Examining the impact of safe-haven flows and bearish technical signals. Our analysis highlights key support and resistance levels.
Chart of the week: USDCHF
The Swiss franc has mirrored the Japanese yen over the past week, with both currencies appreciating notably against the US dollar amid heightened safe-haven demand. Based on a 5-day rolling performance basis as of 23 May, the US dollar has shed -1.8% against the CHF and -2% against the JPY (see Fig. 1).
Also, they tend to outperform against other major currencies when there is a sudden bout of risk-aversion activities, as the earlier risk-on spillover effect from the 90-day US-China tariffs truce ex-post 12 May dissipated.
Last Friday, 23 May, US President Trump revived his hawkish tariff rhetoric toward the European Union, threatening to impose a 50% tariff on all EU imports as of 1 June before deciding to extend the deadline until 9 July, as reported by media on Monday, 26 May, early Asian session.
In addition, a potential 25% tariff on foreign-made smartphones, including those from Apple and Samsung. These latest remarks from Trump signalled that the “trade tension escalation” is back.
Let’s review the latest USD/CHF technical chart to assess its medium-term trend bias and key levels to watch for the week.
Also read: Understanding the Japanese Yen
Fig 1: 5-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 23 May 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Fig 2: USD/CHF medium-term trend as of 23 May 2025 (Source: TradingView)
The recent 5.4% rally seen in the USD/CHF from its 52-week low of 0.8040 printed on 21 April to its 13 May high of 0.8477 is likely a minor corrective rebound within its medium-term downtrend phase, which is still intact from its 3 February 2025 swing high (see Fig. 2).
Two key technical elements support the idea that the corrective rebound may have ended, and the price actions of USD/CHF are set to resume a potential multi-week impulsive down move sequence.
Firstly, USD/CHF dropped back below its 20-day moving average on 21 May and confirmed a bearish rejection from that level on 23 May. Secondly, the 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out a bearish momentum condition reading since 23 May.
Watch the 0.8310 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also the 20-day moving average) on the USD/CHF, with the next supports coming in at 0.8115, 0.8040, and 0.7980.
However, a clearance above 0.8310 may negate the bearish tone to expose the next medium-term resistance at 0.8470/8510 (also the 50-day moving average and the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel).
