Gold faces renewed pressure below key 50-day moving average

• Gold continues to underperform global equities as rising risk appetite, firm US real yields, and resilient US economic data reduce demand for safe-haven assets.
• The 10-year US Treasury real yield remains supported above 1.85%, while markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated through 2026, creating ongoing downside pressure on gold prices.
• Gold (XAU/USD) faces a bearish technical setup after rejecting its 50-day moving average near $4,775, with a break below $4,507 potentially exposing the next support zone at $4,350/$4,305.

The performance of gold has remained lackluster in comparison to risk assets such as global benchmark stock indices in the past four weeks, where the US Nasdaq 100 and South Korea’s KOSPI soared to record highs.

Based on the pre-US-Iran war baseline of 27 February 2026 to 8 May 2026, spot gold (London Bullion Market Association) has remained one of the worst performers among major cross assets, with a loss of -9.2% versus positive gains seen in the US stock indices (Nasdaq 100 +17.1%, Russell 2000 +8.7%, S&P 500 +7.6%) (see Fig. 1).

Let’s unpack the latest momentum drivers and intermarket dynamics for gold (XAU/USD) against the backdrop of a fragile US-Iran ceasefire, after US President Trump rejected Iran’s response to Washington’s latest proposal, dampening hopes for an imminent second round of peace negotiations.

Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant indirect correlation with longer-term US Treasury yields, such as the 10-year tenure, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.

Hence, if the 10-year US Treasury real yield remains supported and stages an up move, gold in turn is likely to face downside pressure as opportunity costs rise for owning precious metals.

Since 4 May 2026, the 10-year US Treasury real yield has traded sideways above the key 200-day moving average, while holding above a key intermediate support of 1.85% (see Fig 2.).

Also, based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures traders have priced in a high probability that the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged (83% aggregated probability on 9 December 2026, the last FOMC meeting for this year) at the current level of 3.50%-3.75% for the remaining FOMC meetings in 2026 (see Fig. 3).

A continuation of a “wait and see” monetary policy guidance approach from the Fed due to sticky global benchmark oil prices at around $100 per barrel and a resilient US labour market may allow the 10-year US Treasury real yield to trade above the 1.85% key intermediate support level.

The rebound of 5.9% seen on gold (XAU/USD) from the 4 May 2026 low has stalled again at the 50-day moving average that is acting as an intermediate resistance at around $4,775.

In addition, the 4-hour MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bearish crossover condition that suggests a potential weakening of the aforementioned rebound in gold (XAU/USD).

Watch the $4,870 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also the range top in place since 8 April 2026). A break below $4,507 (swing low areas of 29 April 2026 and 4 May 2026) may expose the next medium-term support zone of $4,350/4,305 (also the 200-day moving average) (see Fig. 4).

However, clearance and a daily close above $4,870 negates the bearish tone for the next medium-term resistance to come in at $4,985 (also the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel from 29 January 2026 all-time high).