Chart of the week - Silver. Geopolitics drives bullish trend.

• Silver is the standout performer in 2026 so far, up 26.1% YTD as of 16 January, decisively outperforming gold, US equities, and other major asset classes amid a strong bullish impulse.
• Geopolitics is the dominant catalyst, with President Trump’s aggressive foreign policy; Venezuela regime removal, oil asset seizures, and tariff threats tied to Greenland, driving a sharp rise in geopolitical risk premiums for precious metals.
• Technical structure remains firmly bullish, with silver holding above rising 20- and 50-day moving averages, RSI momentum intact, and continued outperformance versus gold; US$81.70 is the key support with resistance at the US$99–109 zone.

Since the start of the year, silver’s bullish impulsive movement has continued to extend further, as the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)’s spot silver recorded a double-digit gain of 26.1% as of last Friday, 6 January 2026, surpassing other asset classes significantly, even LBMA’s spot gold (5.6%), US small-cap Russell 2000 (7.9%), and US Nasdaq 100 (1.1%) (see Fig. 1).

The primary driver behind silver’s relentless uptrend has been geopolitics, amplified by US President Trump’s confrontational foreign policy stance. This includes his directive to forcibly remove Venezuela’s leadership and seize control of its oil assets, a move that sharply escalated geopolitical risk premiums across the precious metals market.

That pressure intensified last week as Trump renewed his push to acquire Greenland, the resource-rich Arctic territory under Denmark’s autonomous control, citing US national security concerns. He threatened eight opposing NATO members, including France, Germany, and the UK, with a 10% tariff from 1 February, rising to 25% in June, unless they agree to facilitate a US purchase of Greenland.

Let’s now analyse the movement of silver (XAG/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.

Silver (XAG/USD) has been oscillating within a fresh medium-term uptrend phase since the 21 November 2025 low of US$48.64, supported by its current price actions that are still trading above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator is still hovering above its ascending support at the 50 level, which suggests potential medium-term bullish momentum remains intact.

In addition, the four-hour ratio chart of silver against gold has continued to trend upwards above its 20-day moving average, which suggests ongoing outperformance of silver over gold (see Fig. 2).

Watch the US$81.70 key medium-term pivotal support on silver (XAG/USD) to maintain its near-term bullish trend for the next medium-term resistances to come in at US$99.23/99.47, and US$107.018/108.55.

However, a break and a daily close below US$81.70 invalidates the bullish tone for a corrective decline with its medium-term uptrend to expose the next medium-term supports at US$70.52 and US$64.67 (also the 50-day moving average).