Breaking: WTI jumps over 6% to top $75 amid US-Iran war risks
WTI jumps more than 6%, breaking above the $75 mark.Oil prices surge as the US-Iran war raises fears of supply disruptions.Goldman Sachs estimates an $18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium in Oil.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surges more than 6% on Tuesday, climbing above the $75 psychological mark as the ongoing US-Iran war raises fears of potential oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of writing, the US Crude Oil benchmark is trading around $76.16, its highest level since June 2025.
The Strait of Hormuz handles around 20% of global oil shipments, making it one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Senior officials from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly declared the strait closed, warning that any vessel attempting to pass through could be “set ablaze."
Shipowners have largely halted transit through the chokepoint amid rising security concerns, with several vessels anchored outside the Strait. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has suspended operations at its Ras Tanura refinery following a drone strike in the area. The facility can process about 550,000 barrels of crude per day.
Reuters reported on Monday that Goldman Sachs estimates an $18 per barrel real-time geopolitical risk premium in Oil prices, according to a note published on Sunday. The bank said the premium could moderate to around $4 per barrel if only 50% of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for a month.
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI OilThe weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.