WTI rises toward $76.00 as Middle East tensions heighten the Oil supply concerns
WTI rebounds from an eight-week low of $74.24 recorded on Tuesday. Oil prices gain ground as Middle East tensions pose risks to Oil supply. The prices of crude Oil may receive support from the increasing odds of a Fed rate cut in September.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price trades around $75.70 per barrel by the press time. WTI rebounded from an eight-week low of $74.24 recorded on Tuesday, attributed to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that pose risks to Oil supply.
The Israeli government claims it killed Hezbollah's most senior commander in an airstrike on Beirut on Tuesday, in retaliation for Saturday's cross-border rocket attack on Israel. This escalation occurred despite diplomatic efforts by US and UN officials to prevent a major conflict that could inflame the wider Middle East, according to Reuters.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to maintain current interest rates on Wednesday. However, there is increasing speculation about a potential rate cut in September. This expectation could bolster economic activity in the United States, the world's largest consumer of crude Oil, thereby supporting the demand for the liquid Gold.
However, a sluggish economic outlook in China, the world's largest crude importer, is limiting the upside of Oil prices. China's manufacturing activity in July contracted for the third consecutive month, according to an official factory survey released on Wednesday.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia (OPEC+) will hold an online Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting on Thursday. According to Reuters, the group is unlikely to make any changes to its current agreement to cut production and plans to begin unwinding some of these cuts starting in October.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will report the Crude Oil Stocks Change later in the North American session. The market anticipates a decline of 1.60 million barrels for the week ending July 26, following the previous week’s decline of 3.741 million barrels.
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI OilThe weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
