WTI Price Forecast: Trades with modest losses below $92.00; bullish bias persists
- WTI struggles to capitalize on a three-day uptrend, though the downside seems limited.
- The geopolitical risk premium remains in play, limiting the downside for the black liquid.
- The bullish technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak to a two-week high, touched the previous day. The black liquid currently trades around the $91.75 region, down over 0.70% for the day, though the downside seems cushioned amid escalating Middle East conflicts.
The Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen escalated its campaign against Saudi Arabia and fired more missiles on Monday. This follows deadly strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport over the weekend, which drew a Saudi vow of retaliation. Moreover, US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of joining strikes on the Houthi group and resuming attacks on Iran.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of violating an "energy ceasefire" announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should act as a tailwind for crude oil prices, warranting caution for bearish traders before confirming that the recent bounce from an over one-month low has run out of steam.
From a technical perspective, oil prices hold comfortably above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $82.75, retaining a constructive bullish bias despite the latest pullback. Moreover, the black liquid sits just over the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $91.27, suggesting an initial demand zone around the current area amid mixed momentum indicators on the daily chart.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly below zero and hints at fading upside momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 reinforces a neutral-to-positive tone, indicating that bullish pressure persists but is no longer overstretched. Hence, weakness below the 38.2% Fibo. is needed to back the case for a further depreciating move.
This is followed by deeper Fibonacci floors at $87.85 and $84.43, with the 78.6% level at $79.57 and the prior cycle low at $73.37 marking more distant structural demand. On the topside, a break above the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $95.49 would reopen the path toward the cycle high area near $102.33, which is likely to cap gains unless momentum meaningfully improves.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.