WTI Price Forecast: Falls to near $82.00 after breaking below nine-day EMA
- WTI could rebound toward the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of $82.75.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 51 signals neutral momentum as overbought conditions cool.
- The pair may find immediate support at the 50-day EMA of $81.69.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price declines after two days of gains, trading around $82.20 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the spot is remaining within the ascending channel, suggesting that the primary trend is upward.
WTI holds a constructive near-term bias as it remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Price has slipped back under the nine-day EMA, hinting at a pause within the broader recovery, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51 suggests neutral momentum after easing from prior overbought territory.
The immediate resistance lies at the nine-day EMA of $82.75. A rebound above the short-term moving average would strengthen the bullish bias and support the WTI price to target the upper boundary of the ascending channel around $90.40, followed by the nearly three-month high of $92.25, reached on July 23.
On the downside, the immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of $81.69, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around $80.80. A sustained break below this confluence support zone would cause the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the WTI price to navigate the region around the seven-week low of $72.53, followed by the six-month low of $67.09, which was recorded on July 2.
On the Brent side, Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid team notes that the latest move “as there were still few signs of progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.” They highlight comments from White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who told Fox News that “No negotiations are happening right now, and this will continue until the president feels that maybe they come to the table in a meaningful way,” underlining the ongoing geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.