WTI Price Forecast: Bulls seem hesitant below $85.00 and 61.8% Fibo. hurdle
- WTI remains confined in a range below the $85.00 mark for the third straight day on Thursday.
- Geopolitical risks remain in play amid the US-Iran standoff, lending support to the commodity.
- A sustained move beyond the 61.8% Fibo. is needed to back the case for further appreciation.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – extends its consolidative price move for the third straight day and trades around the $84.30 area through the Asian session on Thursday. Bulls seem hesitant and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis before positioning for an extension of the recent move up to a three-week high set on Wednesday.
From a technical perspective, WTI, so far, has been struggling to find acceptance above the $85.00 psychological mark and make it through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August decline. The commodity, however, holds a bullish near-term bias above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50.0% retracement level at $80.78 and $82.95, respectively.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has slipped slightly into negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.97 stays in bullish but not overbought ground. This, in turn, suggests upside momentum is moderating rather than reversing. Hence, any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited.
Immediate support is seen at the 50.0% retracement at $82.95, with a broader demand cluster formed by the 200-period EMA at $80.78 and the 38.2% retracement at $80.73. A deeper correction would expose the 23.6% level at $77.98 before the structural low around $73.55.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $85.17, ahead of a stronger barrier at the 78.6% retracement near $88.33, while the cycle high at $92.35 marks a major cap if buyers extend the rally.
WTI 4-hour chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.