WTI Price Forecast: Bulls retain control near 38.2% Fibo.; move beyond $83.00 awaited
- WTI trades with a positive bias for the third straight day, close to a nearly two-week high.
- The US-Iran standoff fuels supply concerns and lends some support to the black liquid.
- The bullish technical setup supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts buyers for the third straight day and trades just below the $83.00 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday, close to a nearly two-week high set the previous day.
An advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the US meets Tehran's demands. Moreover, fresh strikes by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea fuel concerns over supply disruptions in West Asia. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the commodity and underpins the case for a further near-term appreciating move.
From a technical perspective, WTI holds above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August slide and maintains a near-term bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 64.63 remains in positive territory without yet reaching overbought, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows the line in positive territory, reinforcing that momentum remains constructive.
Hence, a subsequent move up towards the next relevant hurdle, defined by the 50% retracement at $82.93, looks like a distinct possibility. This is followed by the 61.8% level at $85.13, with further barriers at the 78.6% retracement at $88.27 and the prior cycle high at $92.26.
On the downside, a first layer of support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $80.73, ahead of the 23.6% level at $78.00, while the $73.60 swing low acts as a more distant structural floor if a deeper corrective pullback unfolds.
WTI 4-hour chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.