WTI Price Forecast: Approaches over two-month high above $107
- The Oil price rises to near $102.75 due to a prolonged global energy supply crisis.
- US President Trump sees a very good chance that a deal with Iran could be reached soon.
- Tehran said that its focus is on ending the war at this stage.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is up 0.7% higher to near $102.75 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Oil price trades higher as the global energy crisis remains intact due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.
Financial market participants remain uncertain over the Hormuz future as the United States (US) and Iran have not reached a deal yet. However, latest comments from US President Donald Trump showed on Monday that Washington had “very positive development” in talks with Iran and that there was “a very good chance” they could reach a deal, The Guardian reported.
On Monday, a spokesperson from Iran’s Foreign Ministry also said that negotiations with the US through Pakistan are still ongoing and Tehran is “focused on ending the war at this stage”.
Earlier in the day, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that lifting sanctions, releasing frozen funds, and ending US blockade on Iran are major demands in the new proposal delivered.
Meanwhile, growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates this year could weigh slightly on the oil price’s upside.
WTI technical analysis
WTI US Oil trades higher at around $102.75 as of writing. The oil price reflects a bullish bias as it holds well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $97.50.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum remains constructive.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near $97.50, where a pullback could attract dip-buying interest as long as this level holds on a daily closing basis. A sustained break below this moving average would weaken the immediate bullish structure and expose a deeper correction toward the May 11 low of $93.34. Looking up, the Oil price aims to extend its advance towards an over two-month high of $107.35.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
