WTI Oil Price Forecast: Bulls lose momentum near $100
- WTI Oil extends its pullback as Saudi Arabia works to restore the East-West pipeline.
- Price holds well above the major daily SMAs, keeping the medium-term technical outlook constructive.
- A clear move above $100 could open the door toward $105 and the March high near $113.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil extends its decline on Thursday, sliding nearly 2% as Saudi Arabia’s rerouting efforts and hopes for a faster pipeline recovery weigh on prices, even as broader Middle East supply risks stay elevated. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $95.50 after reaching $102.11 earlier this week, its highest level since May 21.
Oil eases as Saudi Arabia reroutes exports and repairs key pipeline
Analysts at Commerzbank report that oil prices fell as Saudi Arabia responded to recent supply disruptions by “sought alternative export routes and moved closer to partially restoring the East-West pipeline.” According to the bank, Saudi Arabia has “begun offering additional crude via Oman, using ship-to-ship transfers at Sohar to circumvent disruption to its Red Sea export route.” Commerzbank adds that the kingdom is “reportedly seeking to restore around half of the capacity of its East-West pipeline within days following last week's drone attacks,” helping to reassure markets over near-term export continuity.
Technical analysis: 4- hour chart
WTI US Oil keeps a bearish near-term tone as price has slipped beneath the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $96 while still holding above the 100-period SMA at $91 and the 200-period SMA at $86. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 hovers just above oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero with a negative line value, which together hint that downside momentum persists, though not yet in extreme conditions.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the horizontal level near $95.00, ahead of the clustered trend supports from the 100-period SMA at $91 and the 200-period SMA at $86, while a deeper slide would expose the prior structural floor around $80. On the topside, the 50-period SMA at $96 acts as initial resistance, with a clearer recovery only opening if bulls can reclaim the psychological barrier at $100.
Daily chart
On the daily chart, the recent upside stalled as buyers struggled to sustain gains above the psychological $100 mark. Despite the pullback, WTI Oil holds well above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), keeping the broader bias bullish.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggest that bullish momentum is still in place without reaching overbought territory.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the horizontal level of $95, which acts as a nearby pivot beneath the market. A deeper pullback would expose the prior psychological and structural floor at $90, ahead of a broader demand zone defined by the 100-day and 50-day SMAs between roughly $85.26 and $84.95, with the 200-day SMA at $79.71 and the $70 horizontal line marking more distant medium-term support.
On the upside, a clear break above the psychological $100 mark could open the door toward $105, followed by the early-March spike near $113 recorded after the US-Iran war began.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.