WTI Crude Oil rallies (again) as Trump rejects Iran peace proposal
- WTI Crude Oil neared $100 in spot markets as Trump rejected Iran's peace offer.
- Trump dismissed Tehran's peace plan and called the ceasefire 'unbelievably weak,' reigniting Hormuz supply fears.
- Aramco CEO warned of around 100 million barrels of weekly supply loss, with normalization risking delay into 2027.
Wednesday's EIA inventory data will test how tight US crude supply has become amid the prolonged Hormuz closure.
WTI Crude Oil climbed about 3.3% on Tuesday, extending a multi-day rally that pushed price toward the $100 round figure in spot markets. The session printed a steady stepwise advance through European and US trade, marking a high close to $99.40 before consolidating around $98.70 just below the triple-digit level.
The Tuesday rally followed President Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest peace proposal, which he dismissed as 'garbage' while warning the existing ceasefire was on 'life support.' Reports suggested Trump is preparing to meet with his national security team to consider renewed military action and to discuss escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, further reducing the likelihood of a near-term reopening. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned this week that the global market is losing roughly 100 million barrels of supply each week, adding that any return to normal conditions could slip into 2027 if disruptions persist.
Looking ahead, Wednesday's weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report will give markets a fresh read on US crude supply tightness amid the prolonged Hormuz closure, with last week's draw coming in lighter than expected at 2.3 million barrels against forecasts of 3.3 million. Traders will also watch this week's US-China dialogue for any signal that Beijing might lean on Tehran to accept Washington's terms, while Wednesday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) release offers a secondary lens on the oil shock's inflation feed-through.
WTI (spot) 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, WTI US Oil trades at $98.30. The near-term bias stays bullish as prices hold well above the day’s open at $95.14, keeping the intraday structure underpinned despite the latest pullback from recent highs. The Stochastic RSI hovers around 42, pointing to neutral-to-moderate momentum and suggesting the market is consolidating rather than reversing decisively lower at this stage.
On the downside, immediate support is anchored at the psychological $98.30 area, with additional backing coming from the day’s open at $95.14, which marks a deeper intraday floor if selling extends. With no nearby technical resistance levels defined by moving averages or other indicators in this snapshot, traders may look to price action around these supports for cues on whether the bullish intraday bias can be maintained.
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $98.66. The contract holds a bullish near-term bias as price trades decisively above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly $90.30 and the 200-day EMA near $74.81, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent pullback from the $105 area. However, the Stochastic RSI has rolled over toward the 40 region, hinting that upside momentum is cooling and that the market could consolidate or retrace before attempting another sustained advance.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent price pivot around $98.66, with a deeper cushion at the 50-day EMA near $90.30 if selling pressure accelerates. A more substantial structural floor emerges at the 200-day EMA around $74.81, where longer-term buyers would likely defend the trend if a larger correction unfolds.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
